As far as FPI cards go, this one was always going to be a little lackluster save for its headlining matchup (and I don’t mean the now-cancelled waste-of-time match between Mikey Musumeci and Geo Martinez). Why? It’s Worlds week, and anyone who’s remotely interested in adding an IBJJF World title to their resume isn’t going to pivot to a no gi superfight unless the pay is there. “Fighting in the UFC” without having to actually throw hands may be cool among the grappling set, but winning Worlds is still the crème de la crème of prestige: winning it–despite the somewhat meager payout–is still considered priceless.
This leaves us with a lineup of fighters who fit into one of the following criteria

I’ll leave it to you to figure out which is which. Here’s the least you should know. 

Ffion Davis vs Adele Fornarino

It’s about time we saw Ffion and Adele’s match get re-made. This was the headliner for FPI 10 until Davies pulled out with an injury. 

Davies is, as the kids say, thicc relative to Fornarino. In her most winning era (2022-2023) Davies cut to 132 lbs for ADCC and was probably close to 136 lbs for IBJJF competitions (assuming a few pounds for the gi to make Lightweight at 141.6 lbs). She hasn’t had to make 125 lbs since she was defending her WNO title. While Ffion has to cut weight for this fight on top of the technical prep, Fornarino can cruise into the match very close to her walking weight.

Weighty matters aside, let’s talk history: the last time these two faced was at ADCC 2022: Fornarino was an up-and-coming unknown from Australia and Ffion dusted her in round one of the -60kg division. Times have changed. 

Fornarino has proven that she can hang with both the Davids and Goliaths, making waves at ADCC 2024 with gold medals in her weight class and in the absolute. Four of her six matches at ADCC were won by submission, true to Fornarino’s burgeoning rep as a no-bullshit submission hunter. Comparatively, Ffion might as well have spent 2024 on sabbatical. Her five superfights were mostly against clear underdogs and past-prime grapplers. The only real match she had was the Polaris one against Brianna Ste-Marie, in which she eked out a win by decision. 

Few things would cement Adele’s dominance as strongly as beating Ffion, and I’m totally here for the Daddy from “Down Under” to take the crown from the Taylor Swift of Jiu-Jitsu. But Ffion is a better-rounded grappler with multiple nontechnical advantages over Adele— in power, size, and pressure. Odds are good that Adele’s hot streak snaps in this bout, but without sad stories. Both athletes are getting paid well for this one. 

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Ffion Davies by decision. 

Raquel Canuto vs Ana Carolina Vieira

Raquel Canuto has had a good if bloated run on UFC Fight Pass (4-0), and this is her first legitimate opponent in terms of both skill and size. The only “real” opponent she had prior to this matchup would be Gabi McComb at FPI 8 last October, but McComb, who won Worlds at Featherweight, is smaller and–at her competitive best–tends to weigh in at least 20 lbs lighter than Canuto.  

As far as matchups go, this one between Canuto and Vieira is as worthy as it is vintage: a very late 2010s matchup for the mid-2020s.

The last record of these two facing is in the gi at Worlds 2018, where ACV won by submission. Since then, Canuto won No Gi Worlds another two times (2019 and 2021, adding to her title in 2017). Vieira claimed two more World titles in the gi (for a grand total of five World titles) and won ADCC 2024 with a tough road to gold, taking down Amanda Leve, Bia Mesquita, and wunderkind Helena Crevar. 

One of these things is not like the other. Canuto is great and Vegas is her home turf, but ACV is undeniable.

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Ana Carolina Vieira by submission. 

William Tackett vs Achilles Rocha

 This is Tackett’s debut on the promotion and his first competitive appearance since CJI last August. A Tackett in the mix–even if a rusty one–rarely disappoints. 

Rocha had a weak decision win in his last Fight Pass appearance against Nathan Haddad, and while he’s a game athlete, Tackett is an athlete with more experience and skill. I expect a lot of scrambles in this match, but the only thing I expect Tackett to struggle with is Achilles’ height and length–and not so much that it hinders William from claiming the ‘W.’ 

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: William Tackett by submission.

Mason Fowler vs Christian Troisi

I’m a shameless fan of Mason Fowler and couldn’t be more thrilled to see him back after injury took him out of the CJI lineup last summer and off the competition scene for what feels like forever. Troisi’s reputation doesn’t exactly precede him: the only thing I can find on him is him getting bodied by Roosevelt Souza in the 2024 Open Class Semis of No Gi Worlds. I fully expect Fowler to smash. 

Fowler deserves his shot at Gordon Ryan, but probably won’t get it. Increasingly, Gordo is to FPI what Jon Jones is to the Heavyweight division: Dana’s protected cargo. 

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Mason Fowler by submission

Francisco Lo vs Enrico Said

Another day, another no gi match for Francisco Lo that isn’t a revenge matchup for Tainan Dalpra.

Said’s biggest accomplishment is a runner-up finish at last year’s No Gi Worlds. Much as I can’t stand Lo, I also can’t see him losing this one. Lo submits opponents routinely at the Black Belt level and even if he doesn’t tap out Said, he’s got more experience in managing a fight just enough to get the win. 

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Francisco Lo by decision 

Alex Enriquez vs Jasmine Rocha

Rocha is 3-1 against Enriquez, and it’ll be great to see if the notorious showboater puts on a show again. The two faced most recently at the 2024 ADCC West Coast Trials, where Rocha won by RNC in highlight-reel fashion.

Enriquez looked fine against Julia Alves in her FPI debut two months ago at FPI 10. Without the overtime, Alves would have taken the match, but the extra period played in Enriquez’s favor: she capitalized on it to get the win by submission. 

Rocha’s recent Instagram posts make it look like she’s got a bit of weight to cut. Provided that she drops the weight without compromising performance, her aggressiveness and scrappiness are likely to outpace Enriquez’s technique.

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Jasmine Rocha by submission 

Coby Fehr vs Ty Costlow

These guys are MMA dudes who are a bit of filler for the card due to being Vegas locals. Fehr wrestled for Notre Dame, so I’d expect his top game to be a strategic advantage–and his fight record shows he’s got a decent guillotine. I don’t have a dog in this fight, but if I did, I’d go for Costlow. Leg lockers tend to do well on FPI, and Costlow has had most of his success with leg attacks in previous grappling bouts.

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Ty Costlow by decision

Keven Carrasco vs Sebastian Oyervidez

Oyervidez doesn’t hold a candle against Carrasco when it comes to grappling pedigree, but maybe the Houstonian MMA fighter can make things interesting. Odds are slim, however. Carrasco has hung with far tougher and more technical opponents over his career–”Baby Shark”, Diego Pato, Meyram Alves. Oyervidez can’t strike in this bout, so unless he has some ‘X’ factor in this fight, I expect him to take an ‘L.’

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Keven Carrasco by submission

UFC FPI 11 goes down on Thursday May 29, 2025 with a UFC Fight Pass subscription.See my recommendations