I’m happy to see Tommy get back in the Octagon, even if it’s not against Jon Jones. Still, better to see the title up for grabs against a worthy fighter: it beats having the belt indefinitely held hostage by a man whose recent cowardly behavior threatens overshadowing a career-long dangerous reputation. 

Aspinall’s (15-3-0) last fight was a dominant rematch against Curtis Blaydes–their first bout in 2022 resulted in a freak injury for Tom. Following surgery and back at full health two years later, he cut through Blaydes handily with a Round 1 TKO. 

In the last three years, Gane (13-2-0) has only lost to the division’s biggest monsters: Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou. With more experience against the very best, if Gane can find a way to parlay that against the rising star, he’ll turn some heads. But if Aspinall is truly the heir to the Heavyweight throne, it’ll continue to put Gane in the “bridesmaid” category in this division: always playing second to the badder man. 

👊🏻Tom Aspinall Key Stats:

8.07 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.89 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

65% Sig. Strike Defense

100% TDD

100% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane Key Stats:

5.26 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.23 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

61% Sig. Strike Defense

43% TDD

25% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Aspinall (-460), Gane (+320)

Man Alive’s Pick: Tom Aspinall

It’s been a long time since Jandiroba (22-3-0) and Dern (15-5-0) first fought one another–nearly five years, to be precise. Dern took the win in their first head to head at UFC 256, proving that the ADCC and IBJJF Champion could do more than just grapple against a fellow black belt in the UFC. 

I don’t think this should be a Strawweight title fight–Zhang Weili would beat both women to a pulp–but since Zhang was forced to relinquish her Strawweight belt to get her shot at Valentina Shevchenko at Flyweight next month, the title is technically vacant.

I’m sure Dana White–along with most male fans–is praying for Dern to win as the more marketable champion, but I’m hoping that Jandiroba pulls through. She’s improved a lot since her last showdown with Dern, holding up against Yan Xiaonan nicely in her most recent fight–and Yan’s striking is far more dangerous than Dern’s. 

While I wouldn’t underestimate Dern, I think Jandiroba’s path to the top has been far more compelling and credible–down to the fact that this is a match between a #1 vs a #5-ranked contender. Regardless, both need to find a way to put on a classic fight to make fans forget that Zhang is the undisputed queen of this weight class. 

👊🏻Virna “Carcara” Jandiroba Key Stats:

1.97 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.55 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

57% Sig. Strike Defense

73% TDD

33% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Mackenzie Dern Key Stats:

3.31 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.9 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

52% Sig. Strike Defense

25% TDD

17% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Jandiroba (-130), Dern (+102)

Man Alive’s Pick: Virna Jandiroba

This is the first time we’ve seen Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1-) back in the Octagon since Merab handed him his first loss. He may not have beaten Dvalishvili, but that doesn’t make Nurmagomedov any less of a threat to the rest of the Bantamweight division. 

There’s some pressure for Umar to rebound from the loss, especially if the “Young Eagle” wants another shot at “The Machine,” but he’s also got time on his side and, arguably, is far from his prime. 

Mario Bautista (16-2-0) comes in on an eight-fight win streak, including a ‘W’ over the recently-retired, new hall-of-famer Jose Aldo. Personally, I don’t see Bautista bloodying–let alone ruffling–the “Young Eagle’s” feathers, but he’ll have to bring the best of his up-and-comer energy against someone as determined as Umar: few things are likely to get in the way between Nurmagomedov and another shot at the title

👊🏻Umar Nurmagomedov Key Stats:

4.38 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.15 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

60% Sig. Strike Defense

78% TDD

39% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Mario Bautista Key Stats:

6.13 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.45 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

55% Sig. Strike Defense

67% TDD

33% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Nurmagomedov (-357), Bautista (+255)

Man Alive’s Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov

A title eliminator at Heavyweight and a true “striker vs grappler” clash of styles, the winner of this bout up next to take on the winner of the main event. 

Many fans would love to see that winner be Volkov (38-11-0)–whether it’s to run it back against a Round 1 loss to Tom or a more controversial loss to Gane. I think Volkov’s going to have his hands full with Almeida (22-3-0), given the consistent strength of Almeida’s grappling and his ability to get in close to his opponents–even at the expense of eating some strikes. 

If Volkov can manage the distance and land bombs on Almeida, he’s got a good shot–he’s perfectly capable of catching a takedown-hunting “Malhadinho” with hammer fists the way Blaydes did against Almeida when the two fought last year. But if Almeida can dodge damage from “Drago” and set up his signature takedowns and submissions from the ground, the Russian won’t be seeing a title shot again in 2026. 

Regardless, here’s hoping we see some improvement in Almeida’s striking (read: any legitimate striking) in this match. Striking has been a huge gap in his repertoire. Among the big boys at Heavyweight, it’ll be hard for him to hang with the best in the long run if hardly throwing any hands. 

👊🏻Alexander “Drago” Volkov Key Stats:

4.97 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.99 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

54% Sig. Strike Defense

72% TDD

66% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida Key Stats:

2.62 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

0.89 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

41% Sig. Strike Defense

60% TDD

60% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Volkov (+158), Almeida (-205)

Man Alive’s Pick: Jailton Almeida

Rakić (14-5-0) thinks he can take Muzakanov’s ‘0,’ and the stakes are high for him doing so: it might be “Rocket’s” last hope to regain relevance in the division and regain momentum after a four-year period of injury and losses. 

Some might say that Rakić hasn’t been the same since a knee surgery for a torn ACL, sustained during his 2022 fight against Jan Blachowicz, but to be fair, the two matches he’s had since returning to the Octagon weren’t exactly against slouches (Jiří Procházka followed by Magomed Ankalaev). 

The #10-ranked Murzakanov (15-0-0) is 5-0 in the UFC, and boasts a flawless record as a professional fighter. Rakić, currently ranked at #7, will be Murzakanov’s highest-ranked opponent in his career so far and toughest test yet. 

👊🏻Aleksandar “Rocket” Rakić Key Stats:

4.16 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.91 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

51% Sig. Strike Defense

85% TDD

23% TD Accuracy

👊🏻 Azamat “Professional” Murzakanov Key Stats:

4.93 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.86 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

61% Sig. Strike Defense

83% TDD

15% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Rakić (-120), Murzakanov (-106)

Man Alive’s Pick: Aleksandar Rakić