Poatan didn’t take this matchup seriously enough in the first go-around back in March, leaving Ankalaev (21-1-1) to take the throne at Light Heavyweight. The tables have turned, with Pereira (12-3-0) as the underdog in this bout, looking to reclaim the strap. 

The hype around this rematch isn’t anywhere near as close to the hype around the initial matchup: maybe because the turnaround is so quick (7 months), maybe because they were one another’s most recent match, or maybe because popular sentiment around this rematch is that it will simply be a more definitive rendition of Ank’s unanimous decision win back in March. 

At best, Pereira comes into the match with more confidence in his ability to defend against Ankalaev’s takedowns and starts to throw his hands with conviction–though he’ll need to watch Ank’s counter-fighting and avoid creating so much pressure that he makes it easy for Ank to penetrate and take him down. He’ll also have to be careful not to paly into Ank’s incredibly underrated counter striking (he always wins the battle of foot placement) At worst, he’s put more effort into crafting pre-fight trash talk for Ank than into carving a path to victory against him in his rematch. The recent scuttlebutt is Pereira was ill for the first fight. I’m rooting for him but Ank just has more ways to win to Alex’s one.

👊🏻Magomed Ankalaev Key Stats:

3.66 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.46 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

57% Sig. Strike Defense

87% TDD

22% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Alex “Poatan” Pereira Key Stats:

5 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.5 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

53% Sig. Strike Defense

78% TDD

50% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds:  Ankalaev (-245), Pereira (+186)

Man Alive’s Pick: Magomed Ankalaev

I don’t see “Sandman” (18-5-0) putting Merab (20-4-0) to sleep. Merab is on a thirteen-fight win streak, has infallible cardio, and earns his nickname of “The Machine” for a reason. His most recent performances included bullying Sean O’Malley into submission (literally) and pumping the brakes on Umar Nurmagomedov, “taking the 0” of the formerly-undefeated Dagestani. 

Sandhagen has excellent and creative striking, but odds point to the Georgian having his third successful title defense come Saturday night–unless Merab, per interviews, committed to seeking a TKO at the expense of his proven grinding and submission-hunting. However, assuming “The Machine” sticks to what’s made him unstoppable so far, Sandhagen’s best chance for an underdog win is getting some high-volume, unorthodox hits in the mix. I can see Sandhagen having some moments early in the fight but the type of pressure Merab puts on opponents is impossible to replicate in training. Cory will eventually be worn down to a nub like all the others.

👊🏻Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili Key Stats:

4.31 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.48 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

56% Sig. Strike Defense

82% TDD

35% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Cory “Sandman” Sandhagen Key Stats:

5.06 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.34 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

56% Sig. Strike Defense

63% TDD

34% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Dvalishvili (-440), Sandhagen (+300)

Man Alive’s Pick: Merab Dvalishvili

Jiří Procházka (31-5-1) and Rountree Jr. (15-6-0) might very well be the best match on this card, especially if the Main and Co-Main turn out to be strategic, five-round contests rather than quick or bloody slugfests.

Rountree has been looking great, and Jiří is a monster. Both had killer performances against Jamahal Hill in their most recent fights, and whoever wins this is likely to get a crack (or a re-crack) at the boys headlining the card.

Any man could take it: a clean left hand from Rountree could end this fight early, or Procházka’s movement, pace, combos, and unpredictability could prevail. Nevertheless, my hunch is this match ends with a KO win for Jiří, who will face Ank for the title (a match that had been offered earlier this year, but Procházka was unavailable), and Rountree gets a chance to run it back against Pereira (and possibly win this time around).  

👊🏻Jiří Procházka Key Stats:

5.74 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

5.7 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

43% Sig. Strike Defense

68% TDD

60% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Khalil Rountree Jr. Key Stats:

3.79 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.24 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

49% Sig. Strike Defense

58% TDD

0% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Procházka (-186), Rountree Jr. (+144)

Man Alive’s Pick: Jiří Procházka

Emmett (19-5-0) and Zalal (17-5-1) is a worthwhile matchup of Featherweights hoping to move their way up in the rankings: Emmett currently sits at #8 and Zalal at #9. 

Zalal called out Emmett by name after beating Calvin Kattar. Though Emmett resisted at first–wanting to take on bigger names–Zalal got his wish granted. 

This will be Zalal’s first time on a numbered UFC main card. If he can step up to the opportunity and deliver another submission win in the Octagon–especially against someone as tenured as Emmett–his future in the division becomes promising given the rest of the Top 10 roster, featuring the likes of Aljo, Ortega, and more. 

👊🏻Josh “CC0” Emmett Key Stats:

3.75 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.46 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

60% Sig. Strike Defense

46% TDD

37% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Youssef “The Moroccan Devil” Zalal Key Stats:

3.07 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

1.8 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

66% Sig. Strike Defense

59% TDD

30% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Emmett (+280), Zalal (-390)

Man Alive’s Pick: Youssef Zalal

Magomedov (28-6-1) had a few tough draws early in his UFC career: his second and third match-ups in the promotion were Sean Strickland and Caio Borralho back in 2023. Since then, Abus has been able to rebuild momentum, coming into this matchup against Pyfer on a three-fight winning streak. 

There might be more to say about Pyfer’s hair transplant and smack talk about Mexico than his actual fighting, but there’s no doubt that Pyfer (14-3-0) has knockout power. He’s got an especially bruising right hand, and he’d be doing fans a favor by letting his fists do the talking instead of running his mouth.

Neither fighter is known for endurance. The person who wins here will be the man who KOs most quickly or the man whose gas tank outlasts Round 1–whichever happens sooner.

👊🏻Abus Magomedov Key Stats:

3.21 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.68 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

56% Sig. Strike Defense

100% TDD

37% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Joe “Bodybagz” Pyfer Key Stats:

3.74 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.2 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

54% Sig. Strike Defense

60% TDD

42% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Magomedov (+200), Pyfer (-235)

Man Alive’s Pick: Abus Magomedov