There’s no fluff on this Main Card at UFC 317. The four matches run the gamut of old favorites, rising stars, defending champions, and new champions, giving fans a lot to look forward to on June 28. From Ilia Topuria’s Lightweight championship debut to Dariush’s return to the Octagon, to the two fast-paced Flyweight matches on the card, here’s the least you should know.
Topuria vs Oliveira
With Islam vacating the belt for unknown reasons, and Ilia Topuria (16-0-0) vanquishing two of the most decorated UFC Featherweights in history, we’ve now got a new contender for the Lightweight belt.
This Lightweight Championship fight is bound to be a barn-burner, with Topuria moving up in weight to take on Charles Oliveira (35-10-0). Do Bronxs’ last appearance was against Michael Chandler at UFC 309 in November 2024. Topuria’s last appearance was at UFC 308, when he made history by KO-ing Max Holloway and defending his Featherweight title, which he snatched from Alex Volkanovski earlier in 2024.
Topuria is the real deal, and even though he’s moving up in weight for this match, the man’s still bound to hit hard: this is a man who outstruck and viciously KO-ed Max Holloway, a man who had never been knocked out in his entire UFC career. I don’t have concerns about Topuria handling championship rounds if the fight gets to four or five rounds with Oliveira: Topuria “went the distance” back in 2023 against Josh Emmett. That said, in most fights, he doesn’t need the extra time: Topuria has finished more than half of his pro fights in the first round.
No shade on Do Bronxs, whose story is incredible and is slated to be made into a feature film, but he’s the older and more battered of the two men stepping into the Octagon on Saturday night. He has an excellent guard–highly layered, technical, and offensive–but if this match hits the ground on anything other than Oliveira’s own terms, I can’t see any outcome other than another knockout at the hands of Topuria.
👊🏻Ilia “El Matador” Topuria Key Stats:
4.69 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
3.84 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
64% Sig. Strike Defense
93% TDD
61% TD Accuracy
👊🏻Charles “Do Bronxs” Oliveira Key Stats:
3.40 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
3.21 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
49% Sig. Strike Defense
56% TDD
40% TD Accuracy
Vegas Odds: Topuria (-425), Oliveira (+330)
Man Alive’s Pick: Ilia Topuria
Pantoja vs Kara-France
Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0) got it easy when taking on RIZE champion, Kai Asakura, according to Kara-France (25-11-0), who has been calling for this fight for a while: “They’ve got the wrong Kai,” he’d said about Pantoja’s match against Asakura. I’d have to agree if you believe in the “boy math”: Kara-France dusted Erceg with a first-round knockout at UFC 305, whereas Erceg dragged things out with Pantoja for five rounds on Pantoja’s home turf in Brazil at UFC 301. So Kara-France should beat Pantoja, right?
Easier said than done: Pantoja is on a seven-fight win streak and hasn’t lost since facing off against Askar Askarov in 2020. Kara-France has been regaining momentum after snapping a streak of losses against Brandon Moreno and Amir Albazi with a TKO of Steve Erceg in 2024.
This match will be Pantoja’s fourth title defense, and the first time these two have matched up since 2016, when they met on The Ultimate Fighter for an exhibition fight in the quarterfinals (Pantoja took the W by decision). Odds are that this fight goes the distance again and in favor of Pantoja, but it only takes one good punch from Kara-France for him to live up to his moniker: “Don’t Blink.”
👊🏻Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja Key Stats:
4.41 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
3.92 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
50% Sig. Strike Defense
68% TDD
47% TD Accuracy
👊🏻Kai “Don’t Blink” Kara-France Key Stats:
4.56 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
3.22 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
65% Sig. Strike Defense
88% TDD
33% TD Accuracy
Vegas Odds: Pantoja (-265), Kara-France (+215)
Man Alive’s Pick: Alexandre Pantoja
Dariush vs Moicano
Dariush vs Moicano was supposed to happen in January: it got canceled when Moicano stepped in on short notice to fight Islam Makhachev back at UFC 311, when Arman Tsarukyan withdrew on one day’s notice due to injury during his weight cut.
Dariush (22-6-1) hasn’t been as active of late and admitted earlier this year that this fight could be a “last dance” for him: a loss would give him reason to retire. 2023, his last active year, was a rough one for Dariush, dashing hopes of a title shot after TKO losses to Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan. Winning this match could redeem Dariush and revive those hopes.
Moicano (20-6-0), like Dariush, is a fan favorite–albeit for different reasons: Dariush is more of a nice guy, and Moicano is something of a trash-talker. But for all the talk of money, he’s been able to showcase the skills to back up his fighting words: ever since he went up from Featherweight to Lightweight in 2020, he’s been building momentum in the division, piecing together a four-fight win streak before getting quickly submitted in his last-minute match against Islam.
“Moicano wants money,” but a match against Dariush means that money won’t come easily. Moicano is unlikely to impose his grappling on Dariush the way he did his last few opponents. Dariush is a technician and his grappling is among his strengths. Dariush has been a longtime contender in the division for a reason. If vintage Dariush shows up at the Octagon, Moicano won’t be putting money where his mouth is–he’ll be putting his foot in his mouth.
👊🏻Beneil “Benny” Dariush Key Stats:
3.78 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
2.65 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
58% Sig. Strike Defense
81% TDD
34% TD Accuracy
👊🏻Renato “Money” Moicano Key Stats:
4.36 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
3.55 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
61% Sig. Strike Defense
71% TDD
44% TD Accuracy
Vegas Odds: Dariush (+136), Moicano (-162)
Man Alive’s Pick: Beneil Dariush
Royval vs Van
Brandon Royval (17-7-0) has reentered the contender conversation after rebounding from a loss against division champ Pantoja in 2023. He put together two great performances in 2024, including a victorious rematch against former division champ, Brandon Moreno, and a FOTN-winning performance against Tatsuro Taira.
Royval was supposed to face Manel Kape in this fight, but Kape withdrew after breaking his foot during the fight camp. Instead, he’ll be fighting Joshua Van (14-2-0), one of the division’s hottest prospects: coming in on a four-fight winning streak and fresh off of subbing Bruno Silva at UFC 316, props to the Van, the #11-ranked competitor hopping into this fight against the #1 guy in the division after fighting three weeks ago.
My bet’s that experience beats hype and this match goes to Royval, but here’s hoping for an exciting performance from Van to energize the Flyweight division.
👊🏻Brandon “Raw Dawg” Royval Key Stats:
4.46 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
3.06 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
48% Sig. Strike Defense
45% TDD
75% TD Accuracy
👊🏻Josha “The Fearless” Van Key Stats:
8.20 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
5.26 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
59% Sig. Strike Defense
81% TDD
64% TD Accuracy
Vegas Odds: Royval (-125), Van (+105)
Man Alive’s Pick: Brandon Royval