COMBAT SPORTS

^{It’s the first WNO of the year, and you know what that means? The main card grapplers better be exciting in order to punch their tickets to CJI #2 in August.} 

WNO 26 has a Cali-heavy lineup in addition to the usual fare of Texas-based talent. The main card has some overdue additions and long-awaited returns. It’s got a fairly interesting assortment of folks on the undercard, too: alongside the firepower of Zach Kaina and Sarah Galvão making long-awaited WNO debuts, we also have an IMG Model, Jocko’s daughter, and two literal children. 

Throat-clearing complete, let’s dig into the spandex-clad action hitting the O.C. this week on Friday February 7 in Costa Mesa, CA.  

Who’s Fighting on WNO 26

On the WNO 26 Main Card

• Lightweight Championship - Diego Pato vs Keith Krikorian

• Middleweight Bout - Jay Rodriguez vs Ronaldo Junior

• Light-Heavyweight Bout - Roberto Jimenez vs Elder Cruz

• Light-Heavyweight Bout - Luccas Lira vs Ryan Aitken

• Middleweight Bout - Tainan Dalpra vs Rene Sousa

• Heavyweight Bout - Rafaela Guedes vs Paige Ivette

• Welterweight Bout - Daniel Sathler vs Michael Sainz

On the WNO 26 Prelims

• Featherweight Bout - Isaac Cordova vs Zach Kaina

• Middleweight Bout - Ian Butler vs Silverio

• Open Weight Bout - Solange Van Doorn vs Rana Willink

• Lightweight Bout - Katie Carr vs Sarah Galvão

• Youth Bout - Icaro Moreno vs Christopher Sarkassian

The Least You Should Know About WNO 26

Lightweight Championship - Diego Pato vs Keith Krikorian

Pato dusted Krikorian back at ADCC 2022 via ankle lock in the first round, and there’s no reason to believe that Krikorian can get the better of Pato in 2025 at WNO. Pato is dangerous everywhere: in and out of the gi, in any rule set, and from top and bottom. As the belt-holder for both Lightweight and Featherweight divisions for WNO, he goes virtually unchallenged by anyone except Diogo Reis. The only reason he would do anything remotely subpar in this match would be from sipping on too much vinho verde after collecting another European title in the gi last weekend in Portugal. 

Call me a hater–I don’t see how Krikorian keeps his cred as actual hitters in the gi keep transitioning to no gi. Fellow 10th Planet rep PJ Barch has proven more dangerous and more well-rounded, and I’m not the only one who thinks Barch was robbed on the scoreboard against Mica at ADCC. Meanwhile, Krikorian's grappling pedigree doesn’t extend beyond the leg entanglements. He’s good among nobodies, but has yet to hold up to the somebodies. 

This match is easy money for Pato. 

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Diego Pato 

Middleweight Bout - Tainan Dalpra vs Rene Sousa

Rene Sousa is yet another piece of chum for Tainan. The man went from being a one-hit wonder with the Buggy Choke to being slightly more interesting and dangerous in his WNO matchup against Kieran Kichuk in 2023.  

I’m not convinced Sousa gets the better of Tainan, given that Tainan legitimately hung with Jay Rod in his last WNO appearance, but Sousa is a scrapper and his wrestling and leglock proficiency is top notch. If things get slippery or out of Dalpra’s signature control for even a second, Sousa could find a remarkable opportunity at an upset. 

More likely, Dalpra watches how Nicky Ryan dominated Sousa in Sousa’s last WNO appearance and follows that exact course of action: exploiting Sousa’s desire to play legs, combining pressure and outside passing, and finding an opportunity to take and control from the back. What worked for Ryan will work for Dalpra–and if anything, work better for Dalpra. Pressure to back control suits Tainan perfectly in and out of the gi.  

If you ask me, Sousa’s best chance against Tainan is Tainan being unable to continue due to reinjury: Dalpra went into Euros last weekend with a taped up hand, which he broke at The Crown in November 2024. He still won. If lacking a craftier or more technical path to victory, Sousa could play dirty and wristlock Tainan on his broken hand, or let things get sweaty enough that Tainan slips and weirdly posts on it. 

Bet on Tainan to win and hope for Flo to rematch him against Francisco Lo. 

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Tainan Dalpra

Welterweight Bout - Daniel Sathler vs Michael Sainz

This is a quick turnaround for Sathler, whose last WNO appearance against Fabyury Khrysthyan was a bloody good time back in December, getting a well-earned fight of the year nomination from FloGrappling. Sainz is a teenage brown belt hailing from Miami. Sathler’s far from old at 24, but Sainz is a baby at 18. 

Much as I love seeing some variety outside of the usual academies in the mix of New Wave, B-Team, Atos, and AOJ, I’ve got questions about how this match got made. There are more interesting up-and-comers out there at Welterweight, and this WNO is on AOJ home turf in Orange County. My guess is all the AOJ guys who would take on Sathler are in a Pans camp. 

Sainz should watch out for the flying submissions and Sathler’s ankle lock. Speaking from secondhand personal experience on the latter, it’s vicious. 

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Daniel Sathler 

Light-Heavyweight Bout - Luccas Lira vs Ryan Aitken

Lira looked decent at UFC Fight Pass against Michael Pixley, but ADCC veteran and PGF Champ Aitken has been on a monster tear in the last few years. His first-round upset win over Pedro Marinho, current WNO belt-holder in this division, was a heel hook heard ‘round the T-Mobile Arena at ADCC 2024. Aitken’s more tested than Lira, and Lira will have spent a lot of energy opening his new gym while managing this camp.

Lira’s got great technique and did well in his WNO debut last year, but is definitely one of the nicer guys and is far less tested in no gi than Aitken. Aitken is unafraid to be mean and put on a show. If BJJ Heroes can be trusted, Aitken’s also never been subbed in his Black Belt career. My money’s on Aitken. This may be Aitken’s WNO debut but the man is no stranger to no-gi submission fights with long time limits. 

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Ryan Aitken

Middleweight Bout - Jay Rodriguez vs Ronaldo Junior

“The human highlight reel” gets stopped continually by Tainan Dalpra in his World Champion ambitions in the gi, but Ronaldo Junior has been picking up momentum and looking good in no gi superfights over the last few years (see his latest highlight from UFC Fight Pass 9) and did win No Gi Worlds in 2023. 

Meanwhile, Jay Rod keeps getting better. Reservations about his technical skill continue to erode over time. His match against Tainan shows that Jay Rod is more than a flash-in-the-pan athlete or shadow of his older brother. He’s becoming “best in class” in his own right.  

Ronaldo has more jiu-jitsu experience overall, but Jay Rod thrives in this ruleset and is unafraid to scrap. 

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Jay Rodriguez

Light-Heavyweight Bout - Roberto Jimenez vs Elder Cruz

This matchup feels very appropriate, unlike the Jiminez-Duarte one from a few months ago. Jimenez is big, lanky, scrappy, and has an insane gas tank. Cruz is a measured wrestler, and while he’s not the most exciting fighter, his size and pressure definitely earns him his nickname, “El Monstruo.” The two last faced off in the semis of No Gi Worlds in 2023, and the comments section tells you everything you need to know coming into this rematch at WNO: Roberto is going to be the one looking to engage and pushing the pace here.  

I still shake my head at Elder Cruz dropping to Rafael Lovato Jr. on WNO in 2023.If Cruz could let Ole’ Lovato capitalize on an opportunity to get on his back, there’s reason to believe that the younger, more agile Jimenez can do the same–and with more flourish. Chasing the back and landing a choke is “El Natural’s” specialty. 

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Roberto Jimenez

Heavyweight Bout - Rafaela Guedes vs Paige Ivette

Guedes is an animal but has looked timid in her last few competition showings: she took the L to de Jesus on WNO and eked out the W against her at ADCC in the finals. While Guedes looked good at ADCC, if I’m being honest, her draw wasn’t exactly a firing squad: Maria Ruffato is a rookie and Kendall Reusing is overrated. De Jesus is made of gum and gives everyone trouble because of it. 

Ivette is coming off of ACL surgery but looked no worse for wear in her comeback era, starting things up with a formidable runner-up performance at No Gi Worlds. 

Expect a lot of wrestling exchanges and pressure. I expect Ivette to hunt the legs, while Guedes chases the back. 

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Paige Ivette

Prelim Bouts - Quick Picks 

Featherweight Bout - Isaac Cordova vs Zach Kaina: Isaac Cordova had a flashy guillotine in his WNO debut barely two months ago, but Zach Kaina’s a technician and should put the boots on him. 

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Zach Kaina

Middleweight Bout - Ian Butler vs Victor Silverio: Silverio has way more jiu-jitsu experience, and Butler got subbed in his last WNO appearance by someone with far less of it. 

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Victor Silverio

Open Weight Bout - Solange Van Doorn vs Rana Willink: both chicks come into this match with something to prove: Van Doorn models for a living and has to prove she can be as tough as she is pretty. Willink has a pop culture-famous dad and has to prove that her presence on this card isn’t due to “nepo baby” status. Rana Willink is more submission-inclined and likely wins if the match gets to a leg entanglement. Van Doorn only wins if Willink sticks her head out and the leggy model gets Jocko’s offspring in a triangle.  

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Rana Willink 

Lightweight Bout - Katie Carr vs Sarah Galvão: Galvão crushes Carr, easily. The latter is over 30, has zero competitive pedigree, and is probably in this to check a WNO fight off of her BJJ bucket list, but I applaud her for going under fire against the offspring of a jiu-jitsu legend.

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Sarah Galvão

Youth Bout - Icaro Moreno vs Christopher Sarkassian

Moreno is being set up to be the next Tainan Dalpra and basically acts as Tainan’s teenage shadow at AOJ. He has more Instagram followers than most grown adults in the sport. Sarkassian’s only big weapon is his wrestling. This one should go to Moreno, and no doubt that Gui Mendes already has a planned video course about this match in the works. 

Man Alive’s Winning Pick: Icaro Moreno

When and Where to Watch WNO 26

WNO 26 goes down in Costa Mesa, CA on Friday February 7, 2025. Prelims begin at 6PM PST/9PM EST.