Rise and shine, fight fans. You’re gonna need to be up early for this Main Card if it ends in first-round finishes. Action begins at 6AM Eastern time on November 23. 

Petr Yan vs Deiveson Figueiredo

Yan (17-5-0) and Figueiredo (24-3-1) should be a Bantamweight banger: there’s no-brainer potential for Fight of the Night if both fighters come into Macau at their best. 

Ever since Figgy moved from Flyweight to Bantamweight last December, he’s been near-unstoppable. He made a statement with a powerful debut win over Rob Font, chased it with a sub win over Cody Garbrandt, and kept the momentum with a dominant performance over Chito Vera in August in Abu Dhabi.

In the fight against Vera, Figueiredo became the first person to ever drop Chito in his history in the UFC–which says something: Chito didn’t fall over when eating nasty knees to the chin in his most recent fight against “Suga” Sean O’Malley. Beating Yan would all but seal Figgy’s campaign for a title shot in 2025. 

Yan’s a killer, but the former Bantamweight champ hasn’t looked quite as sharp as he did in his 2021 heyday. His fight against “Suga” and his rematch against Aljo in 2022 weren’t his best, and Yan’s probably still feeling shaken up by the pace and volume of takedowns in his match against now-Bantamweight champ, Merab in 2023.

Hope springs eternal, however, for Yan fans: earlier this year, Yan snapped his 3-fight losing streak at UFC 299 with a clinical bout against Song Yadong. If “No Mercy” shows no mercy against the self-proclaimed God of War this weekend, Yan could be writing the first chapter of an intriguing comeback narrative. 

👊🏻Petr “No Mercy” Yan Key Stats:

5.14 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.36 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

59% Sig. Strike Defense

85% TDD

51% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Deiveson “Deus da Guerra” Figueiredo Key Stats:

3.01 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.39 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

51% Sig. Strike Defense

59% TDD

36% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Yan (-240), Figueiredo (+205) 

Yan Xiaonan vs Tabatha Ricci

Oddsmakers disagree, and I might be a hater, but from where I sit, Yan (18-4-0, 1 NC) should put the boots on Ricci (11-2-0). She’s taller, longer, and more tested. She also has actual power in her hands with 8 knockouts on her 18-win pro record, including against Jessica Andrade, which led to her title fight against Zhang Weili earlier this year.  

Since “Baby Shark’s” main weapon is grappling, Ricci’s path to a definitive victory is finding a way to take Yan down and submit her. Ricci eking out two decisions over Tecia Torres and Angela Hill–both of whom are over the hill– doesn’t mean much to me, especially in a division where all the real hitters are ranked at #3 and up. 

This is what Ricci looked like on the ground in her primary martial art a few years ago after a decade of grappling experience. The IBJJF mat isn’t the UFC Octagon, but if that’s how Ricci handles one of the best in her weight class on the ground, I’m skeptical of her ability to handle one of the best fighters on the feet while eating punches. Ricci will need to bring some serious defense–else be prepared to take a lot of damage–against a striker like Yan to get a semblance of a grappling exchange going. 

Yan’s already gone five rounds with Zhang, reigning queen of the division and deserves another shot at that belt. Fighting Ricci seems a bit beneath her, but hey, if Ricci is going to fly to Yan’s territory, why wouldn’t she get the reps? The media seems more interested in Ricci’s personal style than her fighting style. Unless she delivers a career-defining performance in Macau, Ricci’s reputation is likely to revolve around sitting pretty rather than fighting dirty. 

👊🏻 Yan Xiaonan Key Stats:

4.97 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.66 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

59% Sig. Strike Defense

63% TDD

73% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Tabatha “Baby Shark” Ricci Key Stats:

4.63 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

5.30 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

59% Sig. Strike Defense

82% TDD

38% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Yan (-200), Ricci (+170)

Song Kenan vs Muslim Salikhov

Both fighters have been dwelling in the Welterweight division of the UFC since 2017, but this is the first time that Kenan (21-8-0) and Salikhov (20-5-0) have locked horns. 

Both fighters have had long careers with a track record of hits and misses over the last few years. It’s hard to say what these guys have to gain with a fight like this–short of observing their contracts–and it’s harder to imagine either of them delivering a performance that puts them back in the rankings. The top of the division is ripe for an eventual three-peat of Belal Muhammad and Leon Edwards. Marty Snoozeman can’t be counted out yet. I’m hype for Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Ian Garry at UFC 310 even as I wish it were a title defense for Belal–but as far as withdrawal reasons go, a bone infection in the foot sounds worse (or at least more gross) than a broken pinky toe a la McGregor . 

I digress. Stylistically this is a matchup of two Sanda guys, one of whom is pushing 40 but has that Dagestani dog in him, the other who has youth and a home court advantage with a match based in a Chinese territory. I expect both fighters to get slow and gassed if this fight goes the distance, but here’s hoping we see a little good ol’ Chinese kickboxing in the first round. 

👊🏻 Song “The Assassin” Kenan Key Stats:

4.57 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

5.84 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

52% Sig. Strike Defense

73% TDD

33% TD Accuracy

👊🏻 Muslim “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov Key Stats:

3.32 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.92 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

63% Sig. Strike Defense

71% TDD

33% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Song (+135), Salikhov (-155)

Wang Cong vs Gabriella Fernandes

As mentioned last week, the Flyweight division won’t get a shake-up until Valentina Shevchenko chooses to retire. UFC 309’s Araujo vs Silva matchup was a disappointing one to watch, less noteworthy for its talent than for Silva sitting to guard and both athletes’ cardio appearing horrendous by Round 3. 

Wang is undefeated (6-0-0) with her wins split equally between knockouts, subs, and decisions. Maybe her competition just hasn’t been that stiff, but her UFC debut in August (a first-round knockout of Victoria Leonardo) has impressed far more than Fernandes’ first few fights in the UFC: two losses by decision, and one win by split decision. 

Gabi is 9-3-0 and has twice as many pro fights under her belt as Wang. In theory, Gabi should be able to rely on her experience, but looking at the odds and her UFC track record so far, bets are on “The Joker” to make a joke of Fernandes. 

👊🏻Wang “The Joker” Cong Key Stats:

7.07 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

0.73 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

77% Sig. Strike Defense

N/A TDD

100% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Gabriella “Gabi” Fernandes Key Stats:

3.73 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

5.56 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

47% Sig. Strike Defense

59% TDD

22% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Wang (-520), Fernandes (+395)

Volkan Oezdemir vs Carlos Ulberg

Oezdemir (20-7-0) versus Ulberg (11-1-0) is a fun Light-Heavyweight matchup, and one that’s fit to end with a finish. 

Ulberg comes into the mix with a lot of momentum: 6 consecutive wins, 5 of them finishes and the kind of performances that turn heads. Ulberg is a monster athlete with heavy hands, and he stands to win this fight provided he’s as good on defense as much as he is on offense. That said, if “Black Jag” makes one wrong move, he’ll be walking into a bomb from “No Time” in no time. 

It’s been almost seven years since Oezdemir’s title shot against Daniel Cormier, and while he wants to make another title run, the UFC veteran needs to show he can put a stop to the rising star in “Black Jag.” Oezdemir has been on the up though, after a rocky 2020-2021, and his first-round knockout of Johnny Walker back in June shows that he still deserves his spot among the top ten. 

Grab your popcorn.  

👊🏻 Volkan “No Time” Oezdemir Key Stats:

4.76 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.96 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

56% Sig. Strike Defense

80% TDD

33% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Carlos “Black Jag” Ulberg Key Stats:

7.41 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.60 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

53% Sig. Strike Defense

53% TDD

75% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Oezdemir (+215), Ulberg (-255)

Zhang Mingyang vs Ozzy Diaz

This Light-Heavyweight bout doesn’t have the star power of Oezdemir vs Ulberg, but it’s just as likely to end in a knockout. 

Zhang (17-6-0) is a finisher: the 11 KO/TKOs and 6 submission wins on his record all happened in the first round. His UFC debut in February at UFC 298 was a stellar one, his KO of Bredson Ribeiro earning him a performance of the night bonus. 

Diaz (9-2-0) is a Contender Series veteran who doesn’t have quite as much pro experience as Zhang in terms of volume of fights: Zhang’s fight count is more than double Diaz’s. However, Diaz’s experience compared to Zhang’s could be a matter of quality over quantity: he cut his teeth in Bellator and LFA, and he was undefeated in both promotions. 

Both guys will be looking to finish the fight, but oddsmakers favor “Mountain Tiger” to win in this main card opener in Macau. 

👊🏻 Zhang “Mountain Tiger” Mingyang Key Stats:

9.23 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

6.39 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

58% Sig. Strike Defense

N/A TDD

N/A TD Accuracy

👊🏻Ozzy Diaz Key Stats:

1.65 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.91 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

45% Sig. Strike Defense

N/A TDD

0% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Zhang (-310), Diaz (+260)