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UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs Nurmagomedov - The Least You Should Know

“Sandman” tries to blemish the impeccable loss column of Khabib’s undefeated cousin. Tony Ferguson refuses to retire in taking on Michael Chiesa and more brain damage. Mackenzie Dern decides the best warm-up for a grappling superfight is an MMA fight. 

Cory Sandhagen vs Umar Nurmagomedov

One year after this exact match up fell through, Sandhagen (17-4-0) and the undefeated Nurmagomedov (17-0-0) are set to lock horns in their headliner bout on Yas Island this Saturday. 

Sandhagen comes into this matchup with a three-match win streak, his most recent win a Unanimous Decision victory at Catchweight against Rob Font in August 2023, where the former showcased his grappling. Nurmagomedov, ranked #10 in the division, has a five-match win streak in the UFC coming into this bout. His last appearance was in March 2024, where he pummeled Bekzat Almakhan: 30-25, 30-26, 30-26.

Sandhagen is primarily a striker, but has some solid submission defense and zero quit, exemplified in his second-ever UFC matchup against Iuri Alcantara in 2018, perhaps one of the most gritty armbar defenses in The Octagon. 

True to the Dagestani fighters, Nurmagomedov has a more wrestling- and grappling-inclined style–look for Nurmagomedov to emulate the example of his legendary cousin Khabib. Sandhagen can be tough to pin on the wall due to his octagon awareness and constant stance switching but Umar isn’t afraid to shoot in the open space. And once he gets ahold of you the chain wrestling can be tough to stop.

All the while, expect the unexpected from Sandhagen when it comes to throwing hands and feet–it wouldn’t be the first time a flying knee or flurry of fists put one of his opponents to sleep (read: Frankie Edgar). 

👊🏻Cory “Sandman” Sandhagen Key Stats:

5.33 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.40 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

58 Sig. Strike Defense

64% TDD

33% TD Accuracy

👊🏻 Umar “Young Eagle” Nurmagomedov Key Stats:

4.75 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

0.56 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

76% Sig. Strike Defense

100% TDD

56% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Sandhagen (+245), Nurmagomedov (-305)

Sharaputdin Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk

Another undefeated Dagestani (this one a striker, I guess they can do anything) appears on the Main Card, with Magomedov (13-0-0) matched against Oleksiejczuk (19-8-0, 1NC) in the Co-Main Event. 

This will be Shara’s third-ever fight in the Octagon, and he’ll be looking to sustain momentum and prove that he’s a rising star in the Middleweight division (he also looks like a character straight out of Tekken). Michal has been in the UFC since 2017 and hasn’t been lighting the world on fire. He will be looking to break a losing streak from UFC 299 and UFC 302 earlier this year, specifically requesting Magomedov after his loss to Kevin Holland in June 2024. Be careful what you wish for.

This clash of strikers should be an enticing one of a relative UFC rookie versus a steady contender with plenty of knockouts under his belt–fourteen of his nineteen pro wins.

👊🏻 Sharaputdin “Bullet” Magomedov Key Stats:

7.10 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.95 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

35% Sig. Strike Defense

79% TDD

– TD Accuracy

👊🏻 Michal “Hussar” Oleksiejczuk Key Stats:

5.07 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.27 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

61% Sig. Strike Defense

48% TDD

44% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Magomedov (-238), Oleksiejczuk  (+195)

Marlon Vera vs Deiveson Figueiredo

Vera (29-3-1) and Figueiredo (23-3-1) should make for an action-packed run at Bantamweight. The wee lads can go for days and both of these guys are as threatening with their striking as they are with their grappling.

Figueiredo is coming off of a clean sub of Cody Garbrandt at UFC 300. Chito is coming off of a loss to Sean O’Malley at UFC 299, where he and O’Malley were the headlining match for the Bantamweight title. 

Figueiredo moved up from Flyweight to Bantamweight in 2023, following his back-and-forth series of fights against Brandon Moreno for the Flyweight title. He’s an interesting addition to the division, and looked strong against Rob Font in his inaugural Bantamweight bout back in December 2023.

Both fighters are active and hungry. Watch the clash of Figueiredo’s explosiveness and pace against Chito’s toughness and versatility. Let’s see if Deiveson lives up to his nickname as a “God of War” in his new division. 

 Who did it better?

👊🏻 Marlon “Chito” Vera Key Stats:

4.31 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

5.48 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

50% Sig. Strike Defense

70% TDD

39% TD Accuracy

👊🏻 Deiveson “Deus da Guerra” Figueiredo Key Stats:

3.01 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.38 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

51% Sig. Strike Defense

59% TDD

42% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Vera (+124), Figueiredo (-148)

Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa

Here’s hoping that David Goggins doesn’t corner Ferguson (26-10-0) against Chiesa (18-7-0) in this Welterweight bout.

“El Cucuy” looked like a shadow of his former self against “Paddy the Baddy” in UFC 296 ‘get over’ bout in December, and all signs should point to Tony calling it quits before his stock and his body take another beating. When we last saw Chiesa at UFC 291 a year ago, he got dusted in the first round by Kevin Holland. He has yet to regain winning momentum since his last win in January 2021 against Neil Magny. 

Tony got old in a hurry. He’s significantly slowed. He looked plain bad against Pimblett, the level of fighter Tony would have chewed up in his prime. On paper, “Maverick” has more gas in the tank but any time a fighter starts picking up shifts as an analyst (and he is developing nicely on the mic) I think they have one foot out of the Octagon. I still expect him to win this one walking away.

👊🏻 Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson Key Stats:

4.94 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.41 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

55% Sig. Strike Defense

67% TDD

35% TD Accuracy

👊🏻 Michael “Maverick” Chiesa Key Stats:

1.87 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

1.70 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

54% Sig. Strike Defense

61% TDD

51% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Ferguson (+525), Chiesa (-750)

Mackenzie Dern vs Loopy Godinez

The Strawweught bout of Dern (13-5-0) and Godinez (12-3-0) should be a predictable clash of grappler versus striker. Dern’s striking skills have improved since her UFC debut in 2018, but she is not a competitive striker within her division and specifically relative to Godinez, the more well-rounded fighter of the two in this upcoming matchup. 

That said, Dern’s jiu-jitsu is world class, and when she gets the opportunity to impose her grappling, she’s dominant against anyone in her division. Her biggest hurdle will be taking Godinez down. Dern’s wrestling has never been a strength and Godinez may be too powerful to be clinched judo’d. Not to mention Dean will be walking through a minefield of punches to get into grappling range. That said, Dern’s grappling should be especially sharp ahead of her Craig Jones Invitational superfight against 2022 ADCC champion, Ffion Davies, in two weeks and counting. As per usual in Dern’s MMA fights, if Dern gets this match to the ground, it should be a wrap–though based on the stats for Godinez’s takedown defense and Dern’s takedown accuracy, it won’t be easy to get Godinez to the ground. 

👊🏻 Mackenzie Dern Key Stats:

3.31 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.09 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

51% Sig. Strike Defense

29% TDD

15% TD Accuracy

👊🏻 Loopy Godinez Key Stats:

4.13 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.58 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

63% Sig. Strike Defense

84% TDD

47% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Dern (-135), Godinez (+110)

Joel Alvarez vs Elves Brener

The Welterweight bout of Alvarez (20-3-0) and Brener (16-4-0) should be an intriguing clash,

After repeated fight cancellations, at last, Alvarez gets a game opponent in Brener, who made his UFC debut in 2023. When Brener wins, it’s TKOs, and when he loses, it’s by decisions. Similarly, Alvarez hunts subs and goes for the TKO where he can: 17 of his pro wins are by submissions and the other three by knockout, with 13 of his finishes occurring in the first round. 

Alvarez holds a light lead in the odds, and as far as predictions go, odds are this Welterweight bout is likely to be more interesting than that of Ferguson vs Chiesa.

👊🏻 Joel "El Fenomeno" Alvarez Key Stats:

3.65 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.37 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

50% Sig. Strike Defense

11% TDD

– TD Accuracy

👊🏻 Elves  Brener Key Stats:

4.19 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.82 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

53% Sig. Strike Defense

75% TDD

31% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Alvarez (-192), Brener (+160)