COMBAT SPORTS
Pereira looks to defend the Light-Heavyweight strap. Losing the Co-Main hurts…a lot.

Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev

According to D.C., Pereira (12-2-0) hasn’t been taking this title defense as seriously as one might expect: journeying to Australia to corner Sean Strickland at UFC 312, meeting Drake at a concert, and expending his “Chama” energy online and offline.

Pereira was all K.O.s last year: from UFC 300 (Jamahal Hill) to UFC 303 (Jiri Prochazka) to UFC 307 (Khalil Rountree Jr.), so he’s got reasons to be confident, but between the recent travel and media, is Pereira training for what’s likely to be one of his most challenging fights of his MMA career?

One might say it doesn’t matter: Chael Sonnen and others believe that Pereira will move up from Light-Heavyweight to Heavyweight after this fight, regardless of outcome. I don’t think the fight against “Poatan” and Jones is likely, but I wouldn’t mind seeing him go against Aspinall. Especially if Jones continues to make “big announcements” that have nothing to do with his reign in the Octagon.

Ankalaev (20-1-1) is undefeated in his last eleven fights and could break Pereira’s streak in title defenses. He’s a complete and versatile fighter with solid wrestling, striking, and grappling, even if we don’t see him take most wins by submission. He’s got the full package of skills, helped by his size and strength, and most importantly, he isn’t afraid of Pereira. 

Grab the popcorn. This is a worthy headlining bout. 

👊🏻Alex “Poatan” Pereira Key Stats:

5.46 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.44 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

55% Sig. Strike Defense

70% TDD

100% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Magomed Ankalaev Key Stats:

3.64 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.37 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

59% Sig. Strike Defense

87% TDD

31% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Pereira (-120), Ankalaev (+100)
One Man’s Opinion: Ankalaev by ground and pound.

Justin Gaethje vs Dan Hooker - HOOKER IS OUT, FIZIEV IS SO IN.
Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev

Last we saw Gaethje (26-5-0), he was eating a record number of fists from Holloway at UFC 300. Their bout concluded with a fifth-round TKO and career-defining win from Holloway…until he got worked by Topouria a few months later. As for  Fiziev, the last time we saw him he suffered a torn ACL against Mateusz Gamrot.

Gaethje and Fiziev have done this once already. Gaethje pulled off the rare Majority Decision back in March 2023 but there were some confounding factors - mainly an alleged eye poke by Gaethje in round 3.

Some people had this fight even going into the third frame and attribute Fiziev fizzling to the eye damage. That may be true, but it also seemed like Fiziev was running out of gas in the third round opening up a lane for Gaethje to land the jab and implement is rarely used wrestling.

It’s been almost two years. Maybe Fiziev turned his possible cardio weakness into a strength, a la Tito Ortiz post his Frank Shamrock fight.

More than likely a guy with suspect cardio coming off a torn ACL and taking a short notice fight probably isn’t going to be increasing output in the final round but, as we’ve seen many times, short notice fights are like house money and can change a fighter’s approach to his benefit.

Is Gaethje the same guy after the Holloway fight at his age?

👊🏻Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje Key Stats:

6.78 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

7.46 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

52% Sig. Strike Defense

75% TDD

25% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Rafael “Ataman” Fiziev Key Stats:

4.90 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.97 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

49% Sig. Strike Defense

89% TDD

34% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Gaethje (+125), Fiziev (-150)
One Man’s Opinion - Late replacement fights are always tough to predict but I’m trusting Gaethje’s power to get him the dub.

King Green vs Mauricio Ruffy

Green (32-16-1) is tireless, and undeterred after his submission defeat by “Paddy the Baddy.” 

Ruffy (11-1-0) had a fantastic debut year in the UFC in 2024, with TKOs against Jamie Mullarkey and James Llontop. Especially after Ruffy’s Llontop performance–which was held at Catchweight since Llontop missed weight, and Ruffy still dominated –fans are excited to see him go against King. 

King can never be underestimated: this is a man who has enough self-belief to legally change his name to “King.” That said, a win like this for Ruffy would definitely get people talking. There’s a bright future for the Brazilian in the Lightweight division if he pulls off this match against a division gatekeeper.

👊🏻King Green Key Stats:

6.43 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.73 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

62% Sig. Strike Defense

74% TDD

40% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Mauricio Ruffy Key Stats:

4.70 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.76 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

61% Sig. Strike Defense

100% TDD

N/A TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Green (+295), Ruffy (-370)
One Man’s Opinion: Ruffy by Decision.

Brunno Ferreira vs Armen Petrosyan

Brunno Ferreira (12-2-0) and Armen Petrosyan (9-4-0) are both coming in with an amusing coincidence of losses. Both were finished at the hands of a Magomedov at UFC 308: Ferreira got subbed by Abus and Petrosyan ate a double backfist KO from Shara.

Ferreira is a brawler with grappling skills, but who prefers to throw hands: see his eminently-rewatchable spinning backfist against Dustin Stolfutz. 

Petrosyan is a clinical striker with wins over “Robocop” and Duncan, but has a spotty record of late, with last year’s knockout loss to “Bullet” and submission loss to Rodolfo Vieira not too far in the rear view mirror. 

There’s a joke to be made about a “Hulk” vs “Superman” match. I’m not enough of a Marvel or DC nerd to do it justice. 

Odds are it’s Hulk by KO or Petrosyan by decision.

👊🏻Brunno “The Hulk” Ferreira Key Stats:

3.76 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.12 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

52% Sig. Strike Defense

54% TDD

17% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Armen “Superman” Petrosyan Key Stats:

5.95 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.36 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

53% Sig. Strike Defense

32% TDD

33% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Ferreira (+100), Petrosyan (-120)
One Man’s Opinion: Ferreira by KO