COMBAT SPORTS

_{The thunder starts down under with an Aussie-heavy card that’s fully carried by its two hotly-anticipated title fights: DDP vs Strickland II and the third title defense of Zhang Weili}

Du Plessis vs Strickland II

It’s hard to believe that a little over a year ago, both fighters were considered underdogs in the championship conversation. Now they’ve both held the Middleweight title with legitimacy, with Du Plessis (22-2-0) recently defending it against longtime former champion, Israel Adesanya. I don’t know what to make of this division othert than it needs Khamzat badly. While Strickland appears to be one of the stupidest humans alive, his fighting style is very intelligent but very boring. Dricus, on the other hand, occasionally fights with reckless abandon. His fan friendly style will eventually get him introuble.

For those who recall the run-up and payoff of Du Plessis vs Strickland I, these two fighters made for a tremendous grudge match and the back-and-forth action in the Octagon was a worthy and close five-round fight. Dricus even made Sean cry again using only words.

 Coming into the rematch, Strickland is hungry to avenge his contentious split-decision loss. His talk may be trash, Strickland’s (29-6-0) grappling and striking are clean, and his gas tank is killer. He earned his way back to a rematch with DDP after a split decision win over Paulo Costa. 

DDP, unconventional and awkward as his style may be, has shown that being different can be a good thing in the Middleweight division over the last few years. Subbing Stylebender and knocking out Bobby Whittaker makes him impossible to ignore. Between his aggressive forward motion and willingness to eat shots in order to take ‘em, somehow, he’s making it work and he hasn’t been “figured out” quite yet. One bomb from DDP could end the fight at any moment. 

DDP is a brawler and willing to dish it–down to the trash talk–but can Strickland take it and throw it back? 

Whoever wins this definitely has a defense waiting in the wings from Khamzat. Middleweight is many things, and boring is not one of them–not in the slightest. 

👊🏻Dricus “Stillknocks” Du Plessis Key Stats:

6.18 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.85 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

55% Sig. Strike Defense

50% TDD

50% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Sean “Tarzan” Strickland Key Stats:

6.01 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.48 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

62% Sig. Strike Defense

77% TDD

64% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Du Plessis (-130), Strickland (+110)
One Man’s prediction - Du Plessis by UD

Zhang Weili vs Tatiana Suarez

Suarez (11-0-0) is an ace grappler who–by talent and willpower–has earned her title shot against Weili. That said, I don’t see Suarez snatching the belt, let alone touching Zhang (25-3-0), whose skills are as well-rounded as they are peerless. 

Suarez’s rise to the top has been long and determined since her debut on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016, She’s been ravaged by health issues and severe injuries throughout her career–first as a wrestler, then as an MMA fighter–but was insistent enough to keep coming back to fight. Suarez’s story is the stuff of sports documentaries, literally: a documentary about Suarez came out on HBO last year. 

Suarez’s victories have been a balance of subs and decisions, with one KO/TKO. Does she lives up to her self-proclaimed status as “the female Khabib?” I doubt it, but will admit that someone with her kind of determination will be hard to break. (If you watch fights as a student Suarez is a great watch for grapplers.)

Zhang is taking the preparation seriously. Her grappling has improved under the tutelage of Josh Hinger. She’s got proven knockout power and submission proficiency. She’s defended the belt twice since reclaiming it in 2022. Perhaps most importantly in this matchup: Suarez has never had to go the distance for a five-round fight. “Magnum” has been there before and she can do it again. 

👊🏻Zhang “Magnum” Weili Key Stats:

5.66 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.15 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

54% Sig. Strike Defense

50% TDD

46% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Tatiana Suarez Key Stats:

4.27 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

1.38 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

51% Sig. Strike Defense

100% TDD

61% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Zhang (-150), Suarez (+125)
One Man’s prediction - My head says Zhang by UD due to activity, but my heart desperately wants Suarez.

Justin Tafa vs Tallison Teixeira

Teixeira (7-0-0) is a giant at 6’7’’ and this is his Octagon debut. Tafa (7-4-0)  is coming off a loss but has more UFC experience. 

Fans aren’t that excited about this one, and I can’t say I am either. Everything aside from the main card title fights are a bit lackluster. 

Per usual for men of this size and relative rank within the Heavyweight division: expect a knockout or a gas-out. My bet is Tafa relies on his experience and uses his shorter, stockier build to his advantage to close the distance and get body shots to Teixeira. 

👊🏻Justin “Bad Man” Tafa” Key Stats:

4.09 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

5.02 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

48% Sig. Strike Defense

50% TDD

0% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Tallison “Xicão” Teixeira Key Stats:

14.87 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

9.74 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

57% Sig. Strike Defense

0% TDD

0%  TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Tafa (+130), Teixeira (-150)
One Man’s prediction - Teixeira by TKO, ruining Tafa’s homecoming.

Jimmy Crute vs Rodolfo Bellato

Bellato (12-2-0) is a late-notice replacement for Marcin Prachnio. It’s Bellato’s second fight in the UFC, but he could be a harder matchup for Crute. 

A fighter who had a lot of hype and a handful of electric first-round finishes, Crute is now 0-3-1 in his last four fights. Crute (12-4-1) was on the brink of retirement, and if he doesn’t win this one, he might get cut. 

Crute is the hometown hero and he’ll need all the Aussie audience love he can get for this one. Unless Crute’s on the cusp of a comeback, my bet’s on Bellato to TKO. 

👊🏻Jimmy Crute Key Stats:

3.68 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.04 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

45% Sig. Strike Defense

60% TDD

58% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Rodolfo “Trator” Bellato Key Stats:

6.47 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

5.90 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

44% Sig. Strike Defense

100% TDD

25% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Crute (+120), Bellato (-142)
One Man’s prediction - Bellato by TKO

Jake Matthews vs Francisco Prado

Prado (12-2-0) is the younger up-and-comer with yet-untapped promise, formally moving up to 170 from 150 in this fight against Matthews. Matthews (20-7-0) lost his luster as a hot prospect, never quite reaching his potential. 

This match feels a bit like filler. Nevertheless, in the battle of youth versus experience, I favor the experience of “The Celtic Kid,” not to mention his “home court advantage”: Matthews is an Aussie native and the fans in Quodos Bank Arena will be cheering loudly for the local talent.  

👊🏻Jake “The Celtic Kid” Matthews Key Stats:

3.38 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.54 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

61% Sig. Strike Defense

64% TDD

41% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Francisco Prado Key Stats:

4.58 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

5.66 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

53% Sig. Strike Defense

25% TDD

0% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Matthews (-218), Prado (+185)
One Man’s prediction - toss up