COMBAT SPORTS
_{Initially scheduled to occur in Inglewood, CA, with L.A County going up in smoke, is it “too soon” to say that the first card of the year is, as the kids say, “straight fire”?}

Makhachev vs Tsarukyan 2

Makhachev (26-1-0) is dangerous. Period. Full Stop. The Pound-for-Pound champ is on a 14-fight win streak and coming up on his fourth title defense, with previous defenses against Volkanovski (twice) and Poirier. Tsarukyan (22-3-0), however, is no slouch. He ground out an impressive ‘W’ against Do Bronx at UFC 300 and turned heads with his KO of Beneil Dariush. 

Both fighters have improved tremendously since they first met in the cage back in 2019, also when Makhachev was a rookie in the UFC and Tsarukyan was coming off of his first fight in the Octagon. Back then, Tsarukyan gave Makhachev some trouble with his wrestling (which you can watch here on YouTube).

Fans expect this one to become a striking match–but both fighters’ wrestling and ground game are strong if things hit the mat. This is a worthy title fight to headline the card, dictate the future of the Lightweight division, and kick off 2025.

All good things come to an end. I have Arman by razor thin decision in a barnburner setting up an epic trilogy fight.

👊🏻 Islam Makhachev Key Stats:

2.65 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

1.54 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

61% Sig. Strike Defense

91% TDD

54% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Arman “Ahalkalakets” Tsarukyan Key Stats:

3.79 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

1.84 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

54% Sig. Strike Defense

75% TDD

37% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Makhachev (-360), Tsarukyan (+285)

Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov

Merab (18-4-0)  seems heavily underestimated by the oddsmakers. As reigning champ with more experience, Merab’s overt spread and underdog status are surprising. He was the underdog against Sean O’Malley and Petr Yan when he was on the come-up, but to be underdog as champ is another thing. 

No one has been able to stop Merab, but the peanut gallery seems to think that Umar is the guy who can and will. 

Umar Nurmagomedov is good–no doubt–but aside from the halo effect of his last name and blood relations to the legend, Khabib, is he “that guy”? It remains to be seen. He looked fine against Sandhagen in his most recent fight, but Merab’s been unstoppable against bigger names. 

It’s a really quick turnaround for Merab to defend the Bantamweight title–he snatched the belt from Suga Sean barely four months ago–but he’s in shape and he’s game. If there’s someone to take Umar’s ‘O’, he’s the guy to do it and now’s the time to do it, before Umar spreads his wings and becomes the new “Eagle.”

Merab by decision, but it won’t be a cake walk.

👊🏻Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili Key Stats:

4.35 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.31 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

57% Sig. Strike Defense

81% TDD

37% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Umar Nurmagomedov Key Stats:

4.46 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

1.36 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

64% Sig. Strike Defense

100% TDD

50% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Dvalishvili (+270), Nurmagomedov (-360)

Jiří Procházka vs Jamahal Hill

Procházka (30-5-1) and Hill (12-2-0). Hill last ate fists from Pereira at UFC 300 in April  and 

Jiří’s unconventional, and Hill’s a powerhouse. Both are former title-holders for the Light Heavyweight division and want to get back in that conversation. Neither holds a candle to Pereira and it’s unlikely that the winner of this bout is instantly back in the mix for a title shot, but a good performance could put either fighter one or two fights away from another crack at Alex.

The more urgent question than “Who gets Pereira” is who’s KO-ing whom in this fight. 

Jiří’ by KO in the 2nd. If you follow hill on social media he just doesn’t seem mentally whole.

👊🏻Jiří "The Czech Samurai” Procházka Key Stats:

5.38 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

5.59 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

40% Sig. Strike Defense

68% TDD

60% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Jamahal “Sweet Dreams” Hill Key Stats:

7.18 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.51 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

46% Sig. Strike Defense

73% TDD

N/A TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Procházka (-130), Hill (+110)

Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano

Dariush (22-6-1) hasn’t been as active of late and admits that this fight could be a “last dance” for him: a loss would give him reason to retire. 2023, his last active year, was a rough one for Dariush, dashing hopes of a title shot after TKO losses to Charles Oliveira and championship contender, Arman Tsarukyan. 

Moicano (20-5-0), like Dariush, is a fan favorite–albeit for different reasons: Dariush is more of a nice guy, and Moicano is something of a trash-talker. But for all the talk of money, he’s been able to showcase the skills to back up his fighting words: ever since he went up from Featherweight to Lightweight in 2020, he’s been building momentum in the division, coming into this fight on a four-fight win streak. 

“Moicano wants money,” but a match against Dariush means that money won’t come easy. Moicano is unlikely to impose his grappling on Dariush the way he did his last few opponents. Dariush is a technician and his grappling is among his strengths. Dariush has been a longtime contender in the division for a reason. If vintage Dariush shows up at the Octagon, Moicano won’t be putting money where his mouth is–he’ll be putting his foot in his mouth.  

Moicano has entered his money era and is fighting lose. Dariush questioned his motivation to continue after his last loss.
Moicano by decision.

👊🏻Beneil “Benny” Dariush Key Stats:

3.78 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.65 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

58% Sig. Strike Defense

81% TDD

34% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Renato “Money” Moicano Key Stats:

4.42 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.60 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

61% Sig. Strike Defense

73% TDD

44% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Dariush (+190), Moicano (-250)

Kevin Holland vs Reinier de Ridder

Middleweight bout between Holland (26-12-) and de Ridder (18-2-0) is a matchup of division veteran versus division sophomore. RDR comes in as a two-division ONE Championship titleholder who made his UFC debut late last year, coming in clutch with a round-three triangle submission against Gerald Meerchaert.

RDR now comes up against one of the most active fighters on the Middleweight roster in Kevin Holland. “Trailblazer” has strung together an astronomical 18 fights since 2020. RDR has excellent grappling, and has been transparent about his game plan to strike, take down, and choke out Holland, but whether he can get there is the question. Holland’s record is spotty, but when Holland’s good, he’s great, and always comes to slug it out and get money. 

This is a tough second fight in the promotion for RDR but I have him winning by submission.

👊🏻Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland Key Stats:

4.24 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.21 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

51% Sig. Strike Defense

54% TDD

39% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Reinier “RDR” de Ridder Key Stats:

3.24 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.56 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

44% Sig. Strike Defense

100% TDD

38% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Holland (-155), de Ridder (+130)