The fans deserve better. MSG deserves better. Stipe is old and has seemed disinterested for years. Jones has been busy ducking the division, with the exception of Gane - who couldn’t out grapple a toddler. The fact that 42 year old Stipe Miocic is still ranked in the top 10 after almost 4 years of inactivity should tell you what the people behind the rankings think of your intellect. 

We haven’t seen enough of these two in the last few years. Save for a 2023 matchup–in which “Bones” made light work of Cyril Gane by guillotining him in the Main Event of UFC 285–neither fighter has been especially active since the pre-pandemic era. 

While Jones (27-1-0) hasn’t been especially active himself, Miocic (20-4-0) comes into this with an especially long layoff: his last UFC appearance was in 2021, when he lost the Heavyweight belt in a title-fight rematch against Francis Ngannou at UFC 260. It’s also been six years since Stipe fought anyone other than Daniel Cormier and Francis Ngannou. But hey, at least he fought Ngannou.

Miocic is the full-time firefighter, but odds are Jones burns him to a crisp, whether it’s on the feet or on the ground. Assuming Jones gets through this one with Miocic as dominantly as pundits predict–given his GOAT status, he probably will–I expect him to feign retirement. Jones is making business decisions these days. If we see him fight again I’d guess he tries to put together a massive payday and exploit a huge grappling advantage against Alex Pereira. 
I don’t see UFC brass forcing Jones to do anything he doesn’t want to do, like fight Tom Aspinall, after not getting the Ngannou fight done or, quite literally,  changing the gloves schedule to be used this weekend because Jones didn’t like them. 

👊🏻Jon “Bones” Jones Key Stats:

4.29 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.22 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

64% Sig. Strike Defense

95% TDD

45% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Stipe “Stone Cold” Miocic Key Stats:

4.82 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.82 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

55% Sig. Strike Defense

68% TDD

34% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Jones (-625), Miocic (+455) 

Co-main of “Do Bronxs” (34-10-0) and Chandler (23-8-0)

This is a rematch. Oliveira took the first one but an argument can be made that a different referee may have stopped this fight in Chandler’s favor after a vicious knockdown. Oliveira hasn’t quite reclaimed the momentum he had in 2022 when he took victories over Chandler, Dustin Poirier, then Justin Gaethje. Maybe beating Chandler (again) is what “Do Bronxs” needs to get his mojo back in the Lightweight division, especially after his split decision loss against Tsarukyan earlier this year. 

Chandler has been absolutely screwed by UFC leadership. He didn’t get his matchup against McGregor at UFC 303 (broken pinky toe be damned) resulting in a two-year layoff from the cage. Two years out in your late thirties, at lightweight is very different than two years off in your late thirties at heavyweight due to the reliance on speed at lighter weights. His last win was in 2022 against Tony Ferguson, who was already deteriorating. Chandler needs to fight intelligently–not just come to bang–if he wants this to not be his last fight and have things end the way they did last time against Oliveira: with a Round 2 TKO. 

👊🏻Charles “Da Bronx” Oliveira Key Stats:

3.39 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.20 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

51% Sig. Strike Defense

55% TDD

40% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Michael “Iron” Chandler Key Stats:

4.89 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.58 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

46% Sig. Strike Defense

71% TDD

38% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Oliveira (-258), Chandler (+210)

If our future president knows who Nickal is, you probably should, too. Odds are, you already do. 

One of the most hotly-anticipated fights on this card, Middleweight newcomer, Nickal (6-0-0), brings some novelty to the latter end of the card. With the headliners consisting of established fighters coming off of long layoffs, Nickal is fresh blood who, with a few more good performances, could realistically become a co-main event this time next year given his own promise as a fighter and his promotional star power.

The four-digit odds suggest that Nickal will blow out “Bearjew.” Craig has been around the block, has some strong grappling and has a track record of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat using his BJJ. That said, if this goes to the ground, remember: Paul Craig is no Gordon Ryan, and Nickal has legitimate jiu-jitsu. 

I’m hoping we see Nickal try to throw hands a little more, else see what else he’s been working on in efforts to grow as a fighter and climb the Middleweight rankings. His Penn State and NCAA championship wrestling pedigree is undeniable. His BJJ is solid. Will he fall back on his existing toolbox to win, or will he seize the opportunity to sharpen new swords? We’ll see soon enough. 

Assuming Nickal has been working on his striking, Craig is a good person on whom to test things out—he’s not as dangerous on the feet as others in the division. 

👊🏻 Bo Nickal Key Stats:

1.64 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

0.50 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

71% Sig. Strike Defense

N/A TDD

50% TD Accuracy

👊🏻 Paul “Bearjew” Craig Key Stats:

2.45 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.97 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

44% Sig. Strike Defense

38% TDD

21% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Nickal (-1000), Craig (+650)

The Flyweight division won’t get a shake-up until Valentina Shevchenko chooses to retire. “Thug Rose” is done after losing to Erin Blanchfield earlier this month. I don’t think Maycee Barber is “The Future” her nickname claims she is–or that the UFC wants her to be. Araujo (12-6-0) versus Silva (18-4-0) could make things interesting in the meantime, especially given Silva’s momentum.  

#11-ranked Silva is well-positioned to crack the top 10 rankings with a win over #9-ranked Araujo. Silva has a higher knockout and submission rate than Araujo. More of Araujo’s wins come by decision. “Vivi” is coming off a loss to another promising Silva: Natalia Silva, who took Fight of the Night after putting the boots on former Strawweight Champ, Jessica Andrade, back in September and is now ranked #5 in the Flyweight division. 

Meanwhile, Karine “Killer” Silva more than earns her nickname, with a 9-fight win streak and 17 of her 18 pro MMA wins coming from finishes. A hot prospect for the division and alumna from Season 5 Dana White’s Contender Series, she dusted Ariane Lipinski by Unanimous Decision back in April. This is her first fight on a main card and against a Top 10-ranked fighter. 

For the jiu-jitsu fans in the audience, keep an eye on Silva. Her BJJ heritage is indisputable, and 75% of her UFC wins have been by submission. It’s not every day you see jiu-jitsu in a UFC fight, and within the Flyweight division, Silva’s on track to become a submission artist, currently in a three-way tie for most subs in the division among active competitors (Gillian Robertson tops the division with six subs). Unlike Ronda Rousey, Silva’s got more than a single armbar in her arsenal. Silva’s sub wins in the UFC have been by brabo choke, kneebar, and guillotine choke.

👊🏻Viviane “Vivi” Arajuo Key Stats:

4.11 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.96 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

57% Sig. Strike Defense

79% TDD

40% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Karine “Killer” Silva Key Stats:

2.67 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.12 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

50% Sig. Strike Defense

N/A TDD

73% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Araujo (+230), Silva (-285)

Ruffy (10-0-1) and Llontop (14-4-0) is a great start to a card

Of the two alumni of Season 7 of Dana White’s Contender Series, Ruffy is the heavy favorite in this matchup. Based on the odds, unless Llontop can turn Super Saiyan, “Goku” is going to get blasted by “One Shot” in both fighters’ debut appearance on a Main Card. 

Ruffy is coming in with a 5-fight win streak to defend, while Llontop is coming in trying to break a 2-fight losing streak. 

Watching Ruffy move and his competitive reach for the division, it’s less of a surprise that all his pro wins have ended by KO or TKO, and 7 of his 10 pro fights have ended in the Round 1. The winning assault in Ruffy’s UFC debut against Jamie Mullarkey at UFC 301 back in May was a bloody cocktail of flying knees, body shots, uppercuts, and some brutal right hooks.

If Llontop can endure Round 1 and withstand the heat in Ruffy’s hands, he’s proven he can fight to a decision with some success: six of his fourteen pro wins are by decision. Llontop has a more balanced record of knockout and submission wins compared to Ruffy, who’s strictly a knockout man.

If “Goku” can take Ruffy into the later rounds, victory will be less elusive than collecting all seven Dragon Balls. 

👊🏻 Mauricio “One Shot” Ruffy Key Stats:

4.88 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.80 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

59% Sig. Strike Defense

100% TDD

0% TD Accuracy

👊🏻James “Goku” Llontop Key Stats:

5.38 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.97 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

63% Sig. Strike Defense

55% TDD

N/A TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Ruffy (-750), Llontop (+525)Subscribe