Tasers, tears, and steroid implications. Izzy tries to win back the belt–again. Tui’s due for a shoey. “The Leech” returns to suck some punches.  

After Izzy accused Strickland of being able to verbally dish it out and not take it DDP diminished him to a puddle of tears at the presser, forcing him to storm off like a brat. Maybe Izzy’s hormones are in disarray, DDP’s coaches have been heavily implicating that Izzy seems to have put on unnatural size before this fight. Meanwhile DDP is being tased by his coaches when he messes up in training.

Dricus Du Plessis (21-2-0) tries to defend his fresh title after seizing the belt from Sean Strickland. Interestingly, this was supposed to be the matchup of UFC 293, but with Israel Adesanya (24-3-0)  as the defending champion, not the challenger: Du Plessis withdrew from UFC 293 due to a leg injury, Strickland filled in, and, defying the odds, snatched the belt from Stylebender. 

Izzy has come back to win the belt before but can he do it again? He did it recently enough when he lost and reclaimed the belt from Alex Pereira in back-to-back fights between 2022 and 2023. Can Adesanya stick it to Du Plessis after bulking up and lying low on the scene between 2023 and 2024? Oddsmakers think he will, and they’re putting him as the favorite in this matchup. 

Dream situation for Adesanya: win the belt back and seal it all off with a final title defense against Strickland to fully erase the memory of UFC 293 from the record. 

Du Plessis might be underrated here. He’s proven that he can go the distance for five rounds, and can show that his split decision against Strickland was no mistake. If “Stylebender” is anything but dialed in, Du Plessis’ unorthodox style could work magic and lead him to his successful first title defense in the Middleweight division.

👊🏻Dricus “Stillknocks” du Plessis Key Stats:

6.49 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.77 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

55% Sig. Strike Defense

40% TDD

52% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya Key Stats:

3.93 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.11 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

56% Sig. Strike Defense

78% TDD

14% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Du Plessis (+114), Adesanya (-135)

Kara-France (24-11-0) comes in as the #4 Flyweight while Erceg (12-2-0) is sitting at #7, both hoping to get a definitive W instead of another loss by split decision. 

The last time we saw Kara-France in as hot a matchup as this one was his interim Flyweight title fight at UFC 277 in 2022, where he ate a TKO loss to Brandon Moreno. His next fight after that was a five-round banger against Amir Albazi fourteen months ago. Here’s hoping the time off has allowed Kara-France to put in work, rebuild, and bring a killer game against Erceg.

Erceg, a relative newcomer to the UFC, has been something of a head-turner of late with his recent fight for the flyweight belt in Brazil in May at UFC 301. Even as it ended in a split decision to Alexandre Pantoja, major props to Erceg on that performance: it’s a special kind of man who can scrap it in a headliner title fight against a Brazilian opponent in Rio de Janeiro with a crowd telling you “você vai morrer.”

Erceg has a height advantage by four inches. Kara-France is primarily a striker and may take longer to get things going, whereas Erceg tends to work a little faster off the bump and has some good ground game to complement his striking skills.

👊🏻Kai “Don’t Blink” Kara-France Key Stats:

4.57 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.24 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

65 Sig. Strike Defense

88% TDD

33% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Steve “Astroboy” Erceg Key Stats:

4.52 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.20 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

52% Sig. Strike Defense

61% TDD

26% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Kara-France (+180), Erceg (-220)

Lightweights, baby. Hooker the Kiwi takes on the Pole on home turf in Perth. 

Hooker (23-12-0) ranked at #11 and Gamrot (24-2-0) at #5, Hooker explicitly asked for this fight, but it’ll be a harder style for “Hangman” to work with, according to analysts. 

Both fighters enter this matchup with a win streak: Gamrot’s is a three-fight streak and Hooker’s a two-fight streak. 

Hard to say whether Hooker’s striking will hold up against Gamrot’s grappling and pace, but if Gamrot doesn’t get hit, he probably takes this one by decision. 

👊🏻Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot Key Stats:

3.09 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.07 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

60% Sig. Strike Defense

91% TDD

36% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Dan “The Hangman” Hooker Key Stats:

5.08 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.76 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

51% Sig. Strike Defense

81% TDD

34% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Gamrot (-325), Hooker (+260)

Let’s hear it for the big boys in a Heavyweight bout between Tuivasa (15-7-0) and Rozenstriuk (14-5-0).

If you’re looking for grappling, me thinks this isn’t the bout for you.“ Bigi Boy” is coming in off a win against Shamil Gazlev while “Bam Bam” is looking for a comeback story here in Perth. It’s been a while since we last saw Tai, who went from a five-fight win streak to a four-fight losing streak–though, to be fair, those losses came against some of the most devastating fighters in the division: Marcin Tybura, Alexander Volkov, Sergei Pavlovich, and Cyril Gane. His home court advantage here in Perth and could help him soar back to a W.

The heavies will be throwing hands and hunting the KO, with Tuivasa likely throwing with more volume than Rozenstriuk. 

This one’s ending in a knockout–no question. The real question is whether that knockout will lead to a redemptive shoey for Tui. 

👊🏻Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa Key Stats:

3.96 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

5.05 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

43% Sig. Strike Defense

58% TDD

0% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik Key Stats:

3.44 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.78 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

48% Sig. Strike Defense

76% TDD

0% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Tuivasa (+190), Rozenstruik (-230)

Prates (19-6-0) is a bit of a smoker degenerate out of the Octagon, but knows how to bring the smoke into it. I appreciate his approach to work/life balance. A long-range striker with vicious Muay Thai skills, he’ll be up for a challenge in the legendary Li (19-8-0).

Prates is a relative newcomer to the UFC, his debut occurring in February 2024 against Trevin Giles, which won him Performance of the Night for a second round TKO by punches. He followed it up with another Performance of the Night, this time, a nasty knee to the body for a first-round TKO of Charles Radtke in June at UFC Fight Night in Louisville. Upgrading from the prelims of UFC Fight Nights to his first main card appearance on a numbered UFC, Prates will be an exciting match to kick off the main event of UFC 305.

It’s been just over ten years since Li’s UFC debut at UFC 173 in 2014, and two years since his last winning performance, a stellar TKO of Muslim Salikhov. Last we saw “The Leech” was a contentious split decision vs Daniel Rodriguez, but against Prates, Li has a few things in his favor: he’s durable, has never been KOed, has a good chin and is coming off a two year layoff during which he has opportunity to recover from injury and grow as a fighter.

Prates is dangerous and on an active two-fight win streak, rather than a two-year layoff–but assuming the time off did Li well and he can shake off the ring rust, we should see Li’s fearlessness shine through. If he can endure Prates’ leg kicks and penetrate his striking range, Li’s got power in his hands, and has been proven willing to take the damage to give the damage. 

Prates’ best strategy involves throwing kicks to damage Li’s lower body at a distance, slowing Li down and reducing Li’s firepower before going in for the kill. Li’s best strategy is trying to close distance with Prates and deliver a fatal blow with those hands. 

This fight’s likely to end in a TKO. It’s a matter of when and who, not if.  

👊🏻Li “The Leech” Jingliang Key Stats:

4.46 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.84 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

58% Sig. Strike Defense

60% TDD

42% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Carlos “The Nightmare” Prates Key Stats:

4.09 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

25.23 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

39% Sig. Strike Defense

80% TDD

N/A TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Li (+260), Prates (-325)