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UFC 304 - The Least You Should Know
_{How to watch and–more importantly–who to watch this weekend in Manchester, England.}

Edwards vs Muhammad II

Edwards (22-3-1, 1NC) looks to defend his title for the third time. Muhammad (23-3-1, 1NC) looks to get his first shot at a welterweight title. 

The two last faced three years ago in March 2021, headlining UFC Fight Night 187 after Muhammad–on one month’s notice–filled in for a COVID-afficted Khamzat Chimaev, the latter of whom seems to never fight. The bout concluded anticlimactically eighteen seconds into the second round: Edwards landed a kick to the body and, simultaneously, an open hand into Muhammad’s eye. The match was ruled no contest.

Of the two strikers, Leon Edwards holds a slight height and reach advantage and is no stranger to going the distance in a title fight. He’s held the Welterweight belt for nearly two years with two successful title defenses: one of which against longtime champion Kamaru Usman–from whom Edwards also took the belt–and the other against Colby Covington. 

But Muhammad is coming in hot against Edwards, and although this is his first title shot, the man knows how to grind out a five-round fight: in his last appearance in the Octagon, he outstruck Gilbert Burns in a lopsided decision and on two weeks’ notice after Ramadan. 

Their no-contest bout aside, Edwards is 12-0 over the last eight years, and Muhammad is 9-0 over the last five. Especially with Muhammad coming in with a full camp under his belt, he and Edwards are well-matched, worthy of headlining UFC 304. Until we finally see the twice-cancelled matchup between Edwards and Chimaev, here’s hoping another wayward eye poke won’t rob us of action between two fighters who have both patiently worked their way to the top of the division and to facing each other once again. 

👊🏻Leon “Rocky” Edwards Key Stats:

2.75 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.34 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

55% Sig. Strike Defense

70% TDD

35% TD Accuracy

👊🏻 Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad Key Stats:

4.55 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.64 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

58% Sig. Strike Defense

93% TDD

35% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Edwards (-218), Muhammad (+180)

Aspinall vs Blaydes II

A real bout between Aspinall (14-3-0) and Blaydes (18-4-0, 1NC) has long been in the making ever since a freak accident cut short their first encounter at UFC Fight Night 208 in July 2022: Aspinall injured his own knee with a heavy leg kick to Blaydes 15 seconds into Round 1. 

In August 2022, Aspinall underwent surgery for a torn MCL, Meniscus, and some ACL damage, and spent the next year stuck on the sidelines recovering from surgery and working to come back and regain his momentum in the heavyweight division. Defying the odds and looking better than ever, Aspinall nailed his comeback with interest: coming in hot with Round 1 knockouts of Marcin Tybura and Sergei Pavlovich. 

By the stats and current odds, Aspinall should give “Razor” what was coming to him in their first matchup two years ago, but Aspinall doesn’t underestimate Blaydes one bit. Quoted in a recent interview, “He’s got the best grappling in the heavyweight division and he’s got knockout power in his hands. Usually, you got one or the other…so I’m taking this guy extremely, extremely seriously.” 

Blaydes’ last match against Jailton Almeida in March at UFC 299 gives Aspinall every reason not to underestimate Blaydes: he delivered a jaw-dropping stopping comeback in the second round after Almeida dominated the first. Exploiting Almeida’s tendencies toward takedowns, Blaydes rained hammer fists until the point of TKO. Blaydes has a chip on his shoulder after years of feeling overlooked in the heavyweight division and Aspinall has been spending a lot of time chasing the ghost of Jon Jones on social media. There is always cause for concern when a fighter doesn’t seem to be focused 100% on the job at hand.

Especially with their unfinished business from two years ago and each man looking for a possible match-up against the winner of Jones/Stipe, sparks are bound to fly in this rematch between two fighters with excellent grappling and knockout power.

👊🏻 Tom Aspinall Key Stats:

7.72 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.77 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

66% Sig. Strike Defense

100% TDD

100% TD Accuracy

👊🏻 Curtis “Razor” Blaydes Key Stats:

3.53 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

1.83 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

60% Sig. Strike Defense

32% TDD

53% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Aspinall (-380), Blaydes (+300)

Bobby Green vs Paddy Pimblett

This is easily the match with the most trash talk preceding it. By the time UFC veteran Green (32-15-1, 1NC) touches gloves with rising star “Paddy the Baddy”  Pimblett (21-3-0), fans can be certain that the two will pull no punches.  

Twenty-year-old Pimblett wants to make thirty-seven-year-old Green “look like an old man.” Per his latest post-fight interview from UFC 300, Green wants to shut down the hype train on “Paddy the Baddy” and pummel the “slimy, sugary little snake” in UFC 304. 

Pimblett’s lackluster last match, won by decision, was against a shell-of-himself version of Tony Ferguson at UFC 296 in December 2023, and before that he “beat” Jared Gordon in one of the year’s worst decisions. Green’s last bout was a vigorous, bloody clinic against Lightweight legend, Jim Miller, in April 2024, in which Green showed little signs of wear from his eleven years fighting in the Octagon.

Pimblett has promise, momentum, and the home court advantage in his favor, but Green has an axe to grind and a ruthlessness in striking that could render “The Baddy”' into a Bambi in his own backyard. Paraphrasing The Wire, if Paddy’s going to hit “King,” he best not miss. In what is likely to be a textbook “youth versus experience” matchup, my money’s on “experience.” 

👊🏻 Bobby “King” Green Key Stats:

6.45 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.75 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

62% Sig. Strike Defense

74% TDD

39% TD Accuracy

👊🏻 Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett Key Stats:

5.13 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.70 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

41% Sig. Strike Defense

56% TDD

25% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Green (-130), Pimblett (+114)

Muhammad Mokaev vs Manel Kape

Kape (19-6-0) comes into this Flyweight bout on a four-fight win streak with a solid win over Dos Santos back in September at UFC 293. Mokaev (12-0-0, 1NC) comes in undefeated, with a flawless record since going pro and four of his six wins in the UFC coming from submission. 

Whenever there’s a Dagestani competitor in the mix, you can expect relentless wrestling and pursuit of ground control, but Mokaev will need to be careful given Starboy’s knockout record: 11 of Kape’s 19 pro wins are by TKO. One bad level change and the only thing Mokaev will be taking is Kape’s fist or knee into his own head. 

👊🏻 Muhammad “The Punisher” Mokaev Key Stats:

1.53 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

1.36 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

57% Sig. Strike Defense

–% TDD

42% TD Accuracy

👊🏻 Manel “Starboy” Kape Key Stats:

5.12 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.51 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

60% Sig. Strike Defense

78% TDD

38% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Mokaev (-122), Kape (+102)

Arnold Allen vs Giga Chikadze

The Featherweight bout of Allen (19-3-0) and Chikadze (15-3-0) should be an intriguing clash of two strikers, with Allen looking to regain his momentum and Chikadze, sitting at #10, looking to climb higher within the division rankings. 

Allen is coming off of a slight losing streak after impeccable momentum: a decision loss to Max Holloway in 2023 corrupted Allen’s 10-match win streak in the UFC. Despite a competitive bout, Allen couldn’t get his game going and dropped another decision in January at UFC 297 against Movsar Evloev. 

Giga’s bound to bring action with repeated Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night bonuses over his five-year term in the UFC, including against the likes of Cub Swanson, Edson Barboza, Calvin Kattar. Chikadze’s last Octagon appearance was nearly a year ago in August at UFC Fight Night 225 where he outstruck Alex Caceres for a win by unanimous decision. 

Provided Chikadze doesn’t find an opening for a liver kick or a signature ninja choke, odds favor Allen. If Allen could survive the striking of Holloway, he should be able to thrive against Giga. 

👊🏻 Arnold “Almighty” Allen Key Stats:

3.39 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.91 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

61% Sig. Strike Defense

75% TDD

50% TD Accuracy

👊🏻 Giga “Ninja” Chikadze Key Stats:

4.08 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.44 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

63% Sig. Strike Defense

69% TDD

33% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Allen (-265), Chikadze (+215)