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_{We’re back into the 2010s as Kron Gracie and “The Korean Superboy” return, and the UFC tries to vie for Japanese eyeballs (again) with a headlining fight of Pantoja against promotion newcomer, Kai Asakura}

We’re back in Vegas, baby, for the final numbered UFC of the year. It’s a card that’s had its shortcomings–no Welterweight title defense for Belal Muhammad, numerous withdrawals on the undercard–but also has a few bangers waiting in the wings. If nothing else, you’ve got a  number of guys who are fighting for blood, whether it’s because they love to bleed (see Nate Landwehr), love to make people bleed (see Shavkat Rakhmonov), or because they’re fighting to keep their contracts (see Kron Gracie). 

Let’s take a closer look at The Least You Should Know. 

Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura

Pantoja (28-5-0) is fine, I guess, but I’m still thinking about how Steve Erceg came in stone-cold to slug it out on Pantoja’s home court in Brazil back in May and gave him a decent amount of trouble. Shame on “Astroboy” for that takedown attempt in the fifth round though.

Two-time Rizin Bantamweight Champion, Asakura, is new to the UFC and is coming in a privileged spot as the main event headliner in a championship fight. His pro record stands at 21-4-0, with 13 of his pro wins coming by knockout.

Honestly, I stand where Kai Kara-France does: “They’ve got the wrong Kai,” for this match against Pantoja, especially after Kara-France dusted Erceg with a first-round knockout at UFC 305. Even so, I’m not surprised by the UFC for trying (again) to get a man who’s already big in Japan onto the Vegas stage: new eyeballs from the Far East and fresh meat in a lean division. Is an American audience ready to be captivated by a Tokyo hero? Remains to be seen, but if nothing else, Mighty Mouse’s energy and enthusiasm for Asakura is contagious. 

Detractors note that while Asakura can bang, he’s 1-1 against Manel Kape, fellow RIZIN champ, whose UFC career has been lackluster and whose last showing in the Octagon was widely panned: MMA Fighting put it nicely as an “uninspired.” The bad blood in the run-up to Kape vs Mokaev never seemed to boil over in the actual fight. 

Odds are that “The Cannibal” eats Kai alive, but let’s hope Kai makes it interesting and then knocks some sense into Kape in a more definitive three-peat. 

👊🏻Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja Key Stats:

4.41 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.97 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

50% Sig. Strike Defense

68% TDD

48% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Kai Asakura Key Stats: N/A due to UFC debut

Vegas Odds: Pantoja (-265), Asakura (+215)

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Ian Machado Garry

Shavkat (18-0-0) is an animal, and still deserves his title shot at Belal Muhammad, who had to withdraw due to a bone infection in his foot. Need to see that to believe it? Let the clicker beware. 

Rakhmonov’s fight record is as flawless as it is dangerous: 18-0 pro record in MMA, not a single one of them wins by decision, with 50% of his finishes occurring in the first round. 

Garry (15-0-0) steps into the fight against “Nomad” in lieu of his initial bout planned for Joaquin Buckley at UFC Tampa in December. Instead, the Irishman is trying his luck against Uzbek. 

Garry doesn’t command the same kind of fearsomeness of Rakhmonov within the division, but he’s got an ‘0’ of his own and isn’t afraid to risk losing it to Shavkat. A good performance from the Irishman could make him a Welterweight re-edition of Conor McGregor. He’s obviously trying to channel that, down to the walk. 

Garry is long, fast and accurate. Shavkat is a bit longer, training partners say faster, but he is far more reckless with his striking, often entering exchanges with his chin high. Shavkat is the better grappler but, as is always the question, will he be able to get the fight to the canvas. Garry has shown to be great at distance management.

If you believe the internet Shavkat may have bested Garry when they trained together which begs the question - why was Garry so quick to take this fight? Does he know something we don’t?

For as unlikeable as Garry has been you have to respect him for stepping up and taking this fight on relatively short notice.

👊🏻Shavkat “Nomad” Rakhmonov Key Stats:

4.12 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.41 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

52% Sig. Strike Defense

100% TDD

29% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Ian “The Future” Machado Garry Key Stats:

5.50 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.17 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

53% Sig. Strike Defense

69% TDD

56% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Rakhmonov (-360), Garry (+285)

Ciryl Gane vs Alexander Volkov

We’ve got the second- and third-ranked in the division going head to head in this Heavyweight Bout. Gane (12-2-0) beat Volkov by decision when they faced in 2021. This rematch, which was supposed to take place at UFC 308 earlier this year, was rescheduled to let Volkov (38-10-0) heal from a knee injury. 

Gane is a well-rounded technician–check his highlight reel–though he’s been a bit of a bridesmaid with his title shots ‘L’s’ to the likes of Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. Vintage Volkov’s striking is a sight to behold, and “Drago” is on a four-fight win streak since getting subbed by Tom Aspinall back at their headlining bout in 2022.

Unfortunately for both Gane and Volkov, this whole division is beleaguered by the inevitable question of whether Aspinall will ever face Jon Jones. 

I’d enjoy a bout of Gane vs Aspinall or a rematch of Volkov vs Aspinall, but more than that, I’d love to see Aspinall vs Jones. After the ceremonial nonsense of Jones vs Miocic at UFC 309, the fans deserve a real title defense from Jonny Bones–and if Jones wants Aspinall to shut up, why not do it with a fist in Tommy’s mouth?

👊🏻Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane Key Stats:

5.49 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

2.19 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

63% Sig. Strike Defense

50% TDD

21% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Alexander “Drago” Volkov Key Stats:

5.13 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

3.00 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

55% Sig. Strike Defense

73% TDD

64% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Gane (-325), Volkov (+260)

Bryce Mitchell vs Kron Gracie (the first ever fight between flat earthers)

It’s been a while since we saw “Thug Nasty” in his finest form, and it’s been even longer since we saw Kron Gracie (5-2-0)  capture a semblance of his father’s glory in the cage.

Mitchell, whose claims to UFC fame include being the second competitor in the promotion’s history to win via twister submission, is unlikely to hit that kind of move on a Gracie family member. Nevertheless, sitting #13 in the Featherweight rankings, Mitchell comes in as the heavy favorite against the unranked grappler. 

Kron has been underwhelming: killer UFC debut in 2018, disappointing loss to Cub Swanson in 2019, and a four-year layoff only to return looking dated. Dana White had choice words to describe Kron’s last bout in 2023 against Charles Jourdain: “It was like coming out of a time capsule in 1995.” Dana did not mean it in a cool, old school way.

Mitchell came in hot into the UFC, but has been spotty over the last few years, unable to string together a winning streak after getting smoked by Ilia Topuria in 2022. 

Every time Kron fights I hope he puts on a sick grappling display. Instead, he looks like he’s trying to sell his Dad’s self defense course. If Gracie puts on a performance against Mitchell like he did against Jourdain, he’s going to get cut. No matter. He’ll be fine with a family name to fall back onto and some pocket money from his first BJJ Fanatics instructional.

The same goes for Thug Nasty. If he can’t drop bombs on Kron, he can keep dropping beats on his next rap album.

I’m hoping for a sick grappling focused fight but I’m not holding my breath. Kron doesn’t have great takedowns in space and he probably doesn’t have the striking to get Bryce to the cage for a TD attempt. That puts the transition from feet to mat all on Bryce. Mitchell can certainly grapple - but will he want to take Kron down or will he stay on the feet where he probably has the advantage?  Hopes and prayers that this doesn’t turn into Kimbo vs Alexander.

👊🏻Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell Key Stats:

2.30 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

1.63 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

59% Sig. Strike Defense

33% TDD

41% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Kron Gracie Key Stats:

3.74 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

6.82 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

53% Sig. Strike Defense

N/A TDD

25% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Mitchell (-520), Gracie (+390)

Nate Landwehr vs Dooho Choi

In this clash of fan-favorite Featherweights, we have Nate “The Train” Landwehr (18-5-0) taking on Dooho “The Korean Superboy” Choi (15-4-1). Opening the main card with these two fighters, one thing is certain: “There will be blood.” 

Landwehr’s most recent fight in Atlantic City ended in a savage TKO over Jamall Emmers. Hailing from Tennessee, Landwehr is pure MMA Americana, a fighter that throws like he’s at a backyard brawl or auditioning for a Marvel movie. He’s unafraid to take damage in order to do damage. His relentless cardio, smothering pressure, and sheer will more than earn him the moniker of “The Train,” but Landwehr could just as well have earned his nickname from how he “derails” more technical fighters with his chaotic style. 

“The Korean Superboy” has been fighting in the UFC since 2014, but his career has been saddled with forced pauses due to mandatory military service, injuries, and matters in his personal life. It’s hard to believe it’s been eight years since his fight against Cub Swanson, and those who saw him on the come-up in 2016 are excited to see him again–and with good reason. Unlike Kron Gracie, this is a guy who doesn’t look dated in his return to the cage after layoffs: see how Choi triumphed with his first win in eight years by brutally punching out Bill Algeo in his return to the Octagon this summer. That’s exactly the kind of Superman performance that “Superboy” needs to bring against the chaos of “The Train,” vintage calm, technical precision, and an opportunity for a clean right hand. 

👊🏻Nate “The Train” Landwehr Key Stats:

6.25 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

5.75 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

55% Sig. Strike Defense

86% TDD

42% TD Accuracy

👊🏻Dooho “The Korean Superboy” Choi Key Stats:

4.41 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute

4.49 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute

55% Sig. Strike Defense

48% TDD

38% TD Accuracy

Vegas Odds: Landwehr (-148), Choi (+124)