COMBAT SPORTS
UFC 303 - The Least You Should Know
_{What to look for so you can sound impressive in a crowded
room.}

Marvin Hagler once said, “It’s tough to get out of bed to do roadwork at 5am when you’ve been sleeping in silk pajamas.”

Whatever story his PR team is pumping out into the ether to explain Conor McGregor pulling out of his UFC 303 main event against Michael Chandler, my guess is the real reason is closer to the above quote than any other yarn being spun. Without McGregor the UFC scrambled to find a suitable replacement for their International Fight Week card and they put together a curious main event with only about two weeks’ notice. This wasn’t the only main card fight that had to be patched together. There are some big names, and I know pull outs are tough to deal with with but given that this is a cornerstone event for the UFC, and there quite literally is nothing happening in any of the four major sports, I expected the UFC to take advantage of the hungry sports fan and have all contingencies covered in an effort to put out a banger.

Ian Machado vs Michael Page

After a long run in Bellator MVP has finally made his UFC debut at the ripe old age of 37. In his debut he took out Kevin Holland via unanimous decision. Holland is incredibly long and lanky like Page but not nearly as technical. MVP used his length and bubble management to earn the UD.

No one seems to like Ian Garry very much. From his wife’s ridiculous antics to his schtick being nothing but a budget McGregor act, there is plenty to dislike. But the guy is winning fights. At 7-0 (UFC) he’s beaten some respectable pros but not really anyone with a skillset you’d expect to give him problems.

MVP could be that guy. Although 11 years Garry’s senior, Page is an artist in the cage. His  numbers might suggest he’s a low volume striker but he uses a lot of throw aways to land significant strikes. He may need to increase his significant strikes if he wants to beat Garry, who generally pumps out more volume on a per fight basis.

Garry has youth, power, and a willingness to trade on his side but I can’t help thinking MVP has seen it all. I’m interested in the press conference. Ian Garry was a guy that seemed to not believe the words coming out of his own mouth, but that may be changing as his confidence grows. Page, on the other believes everything he says possibly giving him a mental edge to go with his experience.

With McGregor’s future uncertain the UFC would love a new star in that demographic so they aren’t looking to get him run over.

I think Garry edges MVP in a decision, even though I’m rooting against him because he’s

just such an objectionable dude.

👊🏻Garry Key Stats:

6.27 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
3.49 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
53% Sig. Strike Defense
69% TDD

👊🏻 MVP Key Stats:
3.14 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
1.6 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
56% Sig. Strike Defense
67% TDD

Vegas Odds: Garry (-135), Page (+115)

Mayra Bueno Silva vs Macy Chiasson

Bueno Silva once vied for the vacant title but didn’t look great doing it. She dropped a lackluster decision to Raquel Pennington. Her UFC record stands at 5-3-1 (1NC), marked by wins over names like Gillian Robertson and Wu Yanan, and tainted by a no-contest against Holly Holm due to a failed drug test. The fact that she fought for a title says more about this division than it does about Silva.

Chiasson isn’t much more exciting, she wins, then loses, wins, then loses. She can never seem to get over the hump. I wouldn’t be surprised if UFC matchmakers are keeping her afloat just for depth. Victories over Pannie Kianzad (twice) and a split decision triumph over Norma Dumont don’t exactly scream future champ from the 33-year-old.

Neither is a prolific striker but Chiasson does have a reach advantage she could try to exploit. But she’s also the stronger wrestler, that could be the path of least resistance. See Silva vs. Pennington for that blueprint.

The concern with deploying a wrestle heavy gameplan is Silva’s only chance to win may be via submission. I mean, she hit Holly Holm with a ninja choke for the temporary W but Silva pissed hot and we’re not exactly talking prime Holly here.

I know this card, and other upcoming cards, have been ravaged by pull-outs but this isn’t a fight I’d expect to be in the middle of a PPV at a time of year when the UFC should dominate the sporting landscape. Do better.

👊🏻 Bueno Silva Key Stats:
3.84 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
4.86 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
53% Sig. Strike Defense
68% TDD

👊🏻 Chiasson Key Stats:
3.53Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
2.53 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
47% Sig. Strike Defense
63% TDD
37% TD Accuracy

 Vegas Odds: Bueno Silva (-115), Chiasson (-105)

_{Anthony Smith vs Roman Dolidze}

This was meant to be Jamahal Hill versus Khalil Rountree, until Rountree melted the cup with his supercharged urine sample. Then, Carlos Ulberg, sensing opportunity, jumped in on short notice. Then Hill bowed out, enticing Smith to trade the microphone for the main card, which he did. But Ulberg's injury put Dolidze in the hot seat with just days to prep. Lots of moving parts on this card.

Smith is almost 36 years and sports a shaky 2-3 record in his last five bouts. He's a veteran of the game, surviving on his submission savvy and opponents' poor decisions—just ask Petrino who Smith upset via submission in May.

Dolidze came out hot winning 6 of his first 7 UFC fights but is now coming off back-to-back decision losses to unranked opponents. Somehow Anthony Smith is still ranked #10 at 205lbs so a victory for Dolidze would be a career highlight.

Smith has never been known for avoiding strikes. Although Dolidze isn’t Larry Holmes he does have some big power if he connects. That power plus the idea that Smith may be getting a bit chinny is a bad combo. What is Smith’s path to victory? Dolidze, like most fighters from Georgia, is a wrestler by trade. Taking him down will be no easy task. Unless Smith miraculously starts piecing up Dolidze on the feet I wouldn’t expect Roman to engage in a wrestling battle putting himself at risk for a Smith submission. I don’t see Smith pulling this one off. He’s pretty good on the mic, if he loses, I don’t see a lot of incentive for him to keep fighting.

Again, with three of the four major sports in their respective off-season and MLB heading into the All-Star break the sporting fan is starving. This isn’t the fight I’d want to see in the middle of a PPV card. This could end in a hurry or turn into a real slow striking match.

👊🏻 Dolidze Key Stats:
2.62 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
3.36 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
41% Sig. Strike Defense
33% TDD

👊🏻 Smith Key Stats:
3.53Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
2.53 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
47% Sig. Strike Defense
63% TDD
37% TD Accuracy

 Vegas Odds: Smith (+120), Dolidze (-140)

Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes

Another last-minute match-up but this could be the fight of the night. The risk with last minute fights is you don’t know if these guys are staying ready or if they’re eating gas station Honey Buns and washing them down with a sixer of Modelo, the mark of a fighter. The latter could lead to a quick night for someone lured off the couch by a locker room envelope or the desire to curry favor with the chief tomato.

Ortega took an 18-month hiatus following a shoulder injury in his first fight with Yair Rodriguez. That fight followed his war with Alexander Volkanovski back in 2021, a sick fight you need to watch if you haven’t already. He jumped right back into the deep end, ran it back and submitted perennial top 5 fighter Yair Rodriguez. There may have been a little ring rust affecting T-City but he found a way to get it done.

This is a huge and deserved opportunity for Lopes. He’s finished three out of his four UFC opponents over the course of about a year and the decision loss to Evloev is aging well. Make no mistake, Brian Ortega is a huge step up from Sodiq Yusuff, Pat Sabatini, and Gavin Tucker.

Ortega has worked on his striking and it shows. He’s been able to be a bit more aggressive, giving his opponents another dimension of his game to be aware of. Good striking can often open up pathways grappling, clearly Ortega’s strength. But Lopes is younger, bigger, and longer – and after the wars Ortega has been in, maybe hungrier. Wading through Lopes’ striking is a tall order for a weak wrestler who will be the smaller man on fight night for once. Ortega will have to get it done on the feet, which is possible given Lopes high significant strikes absorbed, or use the cage as path to the TD.

I’m high on Lopes but this is a huge step up in competition. Ortega’s strength of schedule is light years tougher than Lopes. Ortega’s path to victory usually involves looking for a submission and Lopes has never been submitted. I’m torn. We could see a changing of the guard or a veteran of the game eschewing the up and comer. This is my pick for fight of the night.

👊🏻 Diego Lopes Key Stats:
3.22 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
4.73 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
38% Sig. Strike Defense
43% TDD

👊🏻 Smith Key Stats:
4.07 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
6.54 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
50% Sig. Strike Defense
58% TDD
27% TD Accuracy

 Vegas Odds: Ortega (+120), Lopes (-140)

Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka

We may never know the real reason for Conor McGregor's withdrawal from International Fight Week, what we do know is we’re left with a rematch of a fight we saw less than a year ago. If the light heavyweight division didn’t stink, I’d be in favor of seeing Pereira fight some new blood, but who?

As a Pereira fan I didn’t like this fight for him the first time (I stood corrected) and I don’t like this fight for him now. If you believe what you read on the internet Prochazka has been living in the woods naked, chopping down trees with a katana and sparring himself under the frozen waters of a remote lake while Pereira has been relaxing in Australia.

Remember that their first fight with full camps was incredibly close until it wasn’t. Pereira only out struck Jiri by a margin of 5. I guess none of that matters if one of those is the coup de grace. Pereira’s opponents have just been much better than Prochazka’s opponents. Jiri beat a few UFC cast offs in Rizin. His career high mark was a win over Glover Texeira – real age unknown. And let’s not pretend Rakic didn’t have some moments against him in a fight few people thought he would be competitive.

Prochazka is a bit unorthodox which makes him hard to predict. Pereira doesn’t have very good defensive hand placement, hot take, I know. But he gets by on using his legs for distance management and the threat of that left hook.

Jiri was one for three on TDs in their first fight. If it’s true that Pereira hasn’t been in the gym it might serve Jiri well to try and put Alex on his back. No one will mistake Jiri Prochazka for Bruce Baumgartner but nothing tires a man out more than defending TDs and get ups.

I favor Alex due to his pedigree and strength of schedule. And, if I thought Jiri was from earth, I’d say the first fight gives him a slight psychological edge. But I’d be lying if I said the rumored inactivity, defensive irresponsibility, and unorthodox opponent didn’t have me concerned.

👊🏻 Jiri Prochazka Key Stats:
5.75 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
5.43 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
41% Sig. Strike Defense
68% TDD

👊🏻 Alex Pereira Key Stats:
5.10 Sig. Strikes Landed/minute
3.65 Sig. Strikes Absorbed/minute
50% Sig. Strike Defense
70% TDD

Vegas Odds: Pereira (-150), Prochazka (+125)