COMBAT SPORTS
UFC 300 - The Least You Should Know
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The UFC is on their 300th numbered event and they’ve stacked the card top to bottom. I’m not much for the pageantry and partnership announcements, I’m just here for the fights. There are simply too many bangers to break down so I picked five that will keep me off my phone and out of the bathroom.
Here is the least you should know.

Holly Holm vs Kayla Harrison 135lbs

Holly Holm, once the holder of UFC gold, seems lifetimes removed from her KO over Ronda Rousey. She now finds herself in her 40’s and in the midst of a turbulent stretch. After her win over Rousey, she stumbled, losing five of her next seven fights, including three unsuccessful title shots. She managed to regain her footing with victories over Raquel Pennington and Irene Aldana, but, she has just one win in the last 3.5 years, painting a picture of a fighter struggling to evolve as Father Time does his dirty deeds. If you’re looking to bet against Holm look no further than her performance against Mayra Bueno Silva. Clinching and looking for takedowns won’t serve her well against Harrison as Holm will likely be at a strength disadvantage and that approach will play into Harrison’s bread and butter.

Kayla Harrison comes in with a record of 16-1. Harrison's dominance in the Professional Fighters League (PFL) is criticized by some looking for the quality opponents on her record. The best of the bunch is Aspen Ladd who, like many of Harrison’s opponents, went up in weight to fight Harrison. Before her decision win over Ladd, Harrison lost a tough fight to Larissa Pacheco (a natural featherweight who was winless in the UFC).

If Holm can channel her past self, the self that battered Rousey by sticking and moving until she fed her a shin bone, she has a real chance. But can she get one more night of bounce out of her legs? Harrison is almost 10 years younger and will be much larger than Holm come fight time. Holly Holm will have a slight reach advantage. Some suggest making weight may be a real obstacle for her Harrison. It will be interesting to see if Harrison plays with her improved striking against such an experienced opponent. If Holm comes in energized and full of bounce, we could see her experience and strength of schedule play a factor in getting her a victory. Otherwise, I think it will an easy night for Harrison gaining a win over a name opponent.

Calvin Kattar vs Aljamain Sterling 145lbs

Calvin Kattar surged into the UFC with a formidable 6-2 record, notching impressive victories over the likes of Andre Fili and Shane Burgos. However, his star has dimmed of late, with a rough 1-3 record since then. But let’s be real here, the loss to Max Holloway was incredibly lopsided and would’ve broken lesser men but Kattar rebounded with a helluva win over Giga Chikadze before losing a very close fight to extremely tough Josh Emmet, and subsequently to Arnold Allen due to a devastating knee injury during their October 2022 bout.

Kattar will be the bigger man standing tall with a four-inch height advantage and a one-inch reach advantage over Aljamain Sterling, a natural 135er moving up in weight. Sterling, once reeling from a 2-3 skid that included a brutal knockout loss to Marlon Moraes, redeemed himself with a stunning nine-fight win streak, claiming and defending the UFC Bantamweight belt three times, but it wasn’t without controversy. We all saw the first Petr Yan fight. However, his winning streak came to an abrupt halt when Sean O'Malley delivered him to the canvas with a pull counter early in the second round of their title fight. This shot landed as Aljo over extended while throwing his left hand, likely to try and get in range for a TD. I bet Kattar also noticed this.

While Kattar boasts superior height, reach, boxing skills, and solid takedown defense, Sterling's unorthodox standup game has confounded many skilled strikers. Kattar, on the other hand, has struggled against elusive opponents in the past, casting doubt on his ability to track down Sterling effectively.

Seems like the classic matchup – one guy looking to get the TD and submit his opponent and the other looking to stay on the feet and batter his foe. Look deeper, Aljo can strike and Kattar can grapple. As long as he is recovered from the knee injury, I expect the size and distance management of Kattar to get him a close decision victory.

Jiri Prochazka vs Aleksandar Rakic 205lbs

Jiri Prochazka, a man with a record of 29-4-1, stepped into the Octagon on a blazing 10-fight win streak. He tore through Volkan Oezdemir and Dominick Reyes before taking the Light Heavyweight crown from Glover Teixeira. But then, a cruel twist of fate hit him hard in the form of a shoulder injury that sidelined him for a brutal 17 months. When he finally returned, the octagon gods were not kind, and Alex Pereira KO’d him UFC 295 although some, including yours truly thought that stoppage might be a tad early.

Prochazka's unorthodox style is all about the knockout, with a staggering 25 of his 28 wins coming by way of knockout. He's a force to be reckoned with, a man who walks the line between genius and madness every time he steps into the cage.

On the other side of the octagon stands Aleksandar Rakic, with a record of 14-3. Despite a split decision loss to Oezdemir, Rakic bounced back with wins over Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos, boosting his UFC record to 6-1. But then came the main event against Jan Blachowicz, where Rakic's knee betrayed him after two hard-fought rounds, putting him out of action for nearly 23 months.

Even before the knee injury, Rakic's star had dimmed. The glory of obliterating Jimi Manuwa seemed to have drained him of his spark, leaving behind a lackluster point fighter.

One would need to be a very technical point fighter to have a shot against Prochazka's 80-inch reach and relentless onslaught. Frankly, I don’t think Rakic has the wrestling chops exploit Prochazka's shaky takedown defense, and you don’t usually develop those skills after a devastating knee injury. I don’t see Rakic surviving a stand-up war with Prochazka, he moves too linearly on defense and length has a way of finding you when you only move straight forward and back.

So, expect Prochazka to come out swinging, wearing Rakic down with his aggression before scoring the KO/TKO. This fight doesn’t see the third.

Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway 155lbs

In a clash of titans known for their striking prowess, you can expect these guys to be throwing fives after an initial period of feeling out and judging distance. Although Max is a big featherweight he’s been known more as a volume striker than a guy with TNT in his hands. That may be a problem moving up in weight and taking on a guy who does have TNT in his hands.  The stark reality is the impact of punches changes drastically when you move up a weight class. Gaethje, known for power, is poised to remind Holloway of this fact.

Despite Holloway's impressive volume striking and Hall of Fame-worthy resume, his punches lack the knockout power to keep Gaethje at bay, let alone push him onto the defensive. Holloway has shown vulnerability to leg attacks in the past, a weakness exploited by fighters like Alexander Volkanovski. I can’t see Max having the ability to wade through Gaethje’s powerful kicks and punches to put him on his back foot and score with volume. Gaethje’s power will be the difference in the battle for the BMF title.

It's a shame that such a great fight has to be tarnished with such a corny gimmick like the BMF title.

Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill
205lbs Championship Bout

I would be very afraid if I were a Pereira fan going into this fight. There is a real danger in Hill. Eventually Pereira’s chin (on full display against Jiri Prochazka) will start to fade, and you never know when that will be until it be. Pereira isn’t slow but he’s far from lightning fast. He is very rangy but Hill shares similar attributes in the size department.

Hill, a former champ in his own right, is a dangerous striker, boasting a similar build and knockout power. Unless he has rededicated himself, I don’t see Hill having the grappling chops (especially after the Achilles injury) to take Pereira down unless Hill first injures him with strikes. Other than an old Glover Texiera Hill’s resume lacks the caliber of opponents Pereira has faced. Be serious, Thiago Silva was never the same after the knee surgeries.

I expect Pereira to use leg kicks early to gauge the distance before mixing in his hands to pressure Hill’s back to the cage, ultimately looking for the left hook. Hill isn’t awesome at defending leg kicks – this can lead to an over reliance on the straight left by a southpaw to keep the kicker at bay, and Pereira doesn’t move his head offline much when he kicks - this could be a problem.
Pereira’s hand position scares me against a guy with power. Dropping his left got him caught against Izzy and he ate some good shots against Jiri. Chins don’t last forever. Hill is unorthodox but is only 9 months removed from a ruptured Achilles. An injury like that can affect lots of things in training camp, especially conditioning and we know Hill can eat in between fight fights. This is a tough first fight back.

This fight makes me nervous for Pereira. Hill is unorthodox and playing with house money. Eventually, we’ll see a chink in the armor of Pereira’s chin.