COMBAT SPORTS
_{In case you needed reasons to watch yet another jiu-jitsu event in Las Vegas before closing out your year}

Where has 2024 gone? In the world of no gi jiu-jitsu, it’s gone to ADCC, CJI, and now, at last, to IBJJF to wrap things up for the year. Time flies when you’re slipping and sliding in your spandex spats while avoiding rampant staph infections. ‘Tis the season indeed. 

Personally, I can’t wait for the kimono to come back on and for the IBJJF to post more meme-able merch on their shop page. Proprietary Shoyoroll gi. Proprietary gi checker. What could be next? Unfortunately, there’s nothing new to buy for stocking stuffer season, unless it’s a belt for those colored belts up for podium promotions.

Incoming, a bracket preview filled with returning champs looking to get another title (Clay, Rodrigues, Ste-Marie, among others), rookie black belts returning from injuries (Abate, Ivette), and more. 

Men’s Bracket Preview

Rooster

Repping the small bois on the near side of the bracket, the quick favorite is 2023 No Gi Worlds champ, Everton Souza. On the far side of the bracket, we’re likely looking at a collision course between Christopher Tran of Team Lloyd Irvin and Osamah Almarwai of Atos in the semifinals. 

Osa, the 2022 No Gi World Champ, and hasn’t been as active in US competition in the last year due to competing in ONE and being based back home in the Middle East, but if Instagram can be believed, he’s been back in San Diego and camping at Atos HQ to give himself the best shot at a second World title. Osa beat Chris Tran back in 2022 at No Gi Pans, but whether he can do it again is hard to say–Tran has been looking good this season. 

The real question is whether Tran can overcome Souza if he gets through Osa. He’s 0-2 against Souza, but the losses were narrow. With a good day, Tran can pull off his first World title. If the final ends up being Osa vs Souza, my bet is on Souza given his youth and scrap. 

Light-Feather

Keep an eye on each side of the bracket and hope for a head to head between reigning No Gi World Champion, Unity’s Edwin “Junny” Ocasio and AOJ golden boy, Zach Kaina. Let the butt scooting, bolo-chasing, and leg-hunting begin among the men whose joints seem to be part rubber, part gum. 

Feather

Seeding doesn’t always matter, but in this division, the top five seeds are the best known and best fighters to keep an eye on at Feather: Julian Espinosa, Cole Abate, Ismael Dos Santos, Sam McNally, and Marco Brito. 

If I had to guess, our final will be Espinosa vs Abate and ends up being a repeat of No Gi Pans where Cole subs Julian. Whether it’s with another armbar or by finding a choke off the back, who can say–Cole’s living up to his reputation as “Ice Cole,” while warming the hearts of the Mendes Brothers with his success back on the mats. Abate broke his tibia in late 2023, and has been regaining competitive momentum only very recently with a No Gi Pan title and superfight wins at both ONE and Polaris. No doubt winning No Gi Worlds would be a pretty sweet conclusion to his comeback season. 

Light

We’ve got two returning champions in Lucas Valente (2023) and Gianni Grippo (2021). I’m itching for some new blood in this division. Grippo and his contemporaries in AJ Agazarm, Johnny Tama, and the like are a bit tired. The ‘Bolo Bros’ of Nick Salles and Daniel Maira never really lived up to their hype as individual competitors, though they’ve made their gym, Movement Art, into an increasingly legitimate team. 

I hope Daniel Sathler has healed up from any scratches and head trauma from his WNO match against Fabyury Khrysthyan. That match was a banger. A match between Sathler and pretty much anyone in this division is a clash between “the kind of guy who tries to hit a flying triangle–and succeeds” and “the kind of guy who wants to play it safe and eke out a win by advantage.”

Middle

Continuing the line of thinking about Daniel Sathler: after that December 4 WNO performance, we should all be paying attention to Fabyury Khrysthyan. His match against Sathler that had everything–head bandages, blood, shoving into tables, and heavy pressure. 

Outside of Khrysthyan, keep an eye out for Tarek Hopstok (and his namesake submission, the tarikoplata), Elijah Dorsey (who probably hopes that his year won’t conclude with reliving his losing leglock shootout against PJ Barch at ADCC), and Natan Chueng (who just won No Gi Pans and, without Andy Murasaki to thwart him on the other side of this Majors bracket, could win No Gi Worlds).

Medium Heavy

Continuing the narrative of 2022 champs who want to get it back in 2024, we’ve got Sebastian Rodriguez as the number one seed. If Felipe Silva, Rodriguez’s teammate, has a good day, the finals could very well be a Unity showdown. 

Jeremy Skinner is an interesting addition to the action, and I’m excited to see one of Lachlan Giles’ favorites come up from Down Under to compete in Vegas–though he’ll definitely be tested in his first round against Checkmat’s Mathias Luna. 

David Garmo came in second in this division last year after a contentious ref’s decision loss to Ronaldo Junior. If he wins the whole thing this year, great, but if nothing else, I hope he subs Francisco Lo again if they meet in the semis. Until Tainan Dalpra starts doing no gi in a format other than WNO, someone needs to keep Lo in his place. The IBJJF loves him, but he couldn’t be more overrated. 

Heavy

I’ve got my eyes on three guys in this division: Luccas Lira, Jacob Couch, and Cassio Felipe Costa.

Lira and Couch could be a great quarterfinal. Lira is coming off a win against Couch’s teammate, Michael Pixley at UFC Fight Night on December 5, but Couch has a different build and different wheelhouse than his teammate. “The Hillbilly Hammer” remains dangerous, but he’s been less hammer, more nail with an up-and-down record in late 2024: WNO loss to Jonnatas Gracie, choked out in the first round of ADCC by Felipe Costa, and failing to crack the quarters at No Gi Pan.

Felipe Costa has been improving a lot in his no gi game, and, anecdotally, he seems to perform better when he comes in at the top of a lighter weight class, the most recent evidence of this being ADCC: he qualified for ADCC at -99kg, competed at -88kg, and had a breakout performance that concluded with a 3rd place finish. 

Heavy rather than Super Heavy could make a difference for “Laranjinha.” There’s no boogeyman figure like Giancarlo Bodoni to get in his way in this division this year. If Costa brings his ADCC energy to No Gi Worlds, the title’s his. 

Super Heavy

I still can’t believe Atos’ Javier Zaruski won No Gi Worlds in 2023 with that triangle of his, and I don’t think the Uruguayan Jew can pull off a second Chanukah miracle looking at the opposite side of his bracket where you’ve got some dangerous dudes: Fellipe Trovo is the superior technician out of Atos and won this bracket in 2022. ADCC vet, Marcin Maciulewicz has some vicious leglocks. I wish Elder Cruz and Adam Bradley were a semis match rather than an opening round–both grapplers deserve to go deeper into this bracket–but I’m glad that a matchup like theirs is happening at all. I’m not interested in the rest of these dudes unless they’re willing to do more than stall on the feet on their way to a decision. 

Ultra Heavy

Roosevelt Sousa comes in ready to defend his title. I have a feeling he’ll be in the finals against Devhonte Johnson. I forget that Heikki Jussila exists because he always wins ADCC European Trials and then gets smoked in the first round of ADCC. Honestly, most of these heavy guys don’t really do it for me. It’s a lot of collar ties and fake wrestling until someone gasses out. 

Women’s Bracket Preview

Rooster

Jhenifer Aquino, the 2022 World No Gi Champ, hasn’t been as active recently, but she’ll be coming in hot to regain her title like she never left. In the absence of Mayssa Bastos from this division, Aquino might have an easier time clinching her second championship–though there are a handful of competitors who will make her work for it: Ana Lima and Shelby Murphey from AOJ already closed out 2023 No Gi Pans, and 2023 No Gi Euros champ Mara Kelly will be coming in hungry. 

Lima and Aquino have traded ‘W’s and ‘L’s in the gi, and if both reach the semis, it’ll be the first time they face off as black belts sem kimono. Murphey, after a close decision loss against Lavinia Barbosa at UFC Fight Pass last weekend, will be keen to redeem herself with her first No Gi Worlds win. Kelly last got dusted by Aquino, but she’s a persistent and consistent medaler at No Gi majors–though she tends to perform better at Light-Feather than at Rooster. 

Light-Feather

It’s Mayssa Bastos’ division, and all the other competitors are just existing in it. Thamires Aquino, older sister of Jhenifer, is a World Champ in the gi, but unlikely to pull off a W if she makes it to the semis against Mayssa,  unless she’s got something special about her no gi game to challenge Bastos: the elder Aquino is 0-2 against Bastos in the gi. 

On the other side of the bracket, we’ve got easy chum for Bastos. Jessie Crane has been on a losing streak between getting subbed by then-brown belt Cassia Moura and getting bodied by Alex Enriquez in ADCC Trials. I’d be keen to see her rematch Sophia Cassella in the semis, assuming Cassella can pull it off: while I think Crane is overrated, I think her being legendarily subbed by Cassella at WNO was something of a fluke in terms of how quickly it happened. As for Cassella: she was a hot prospect as a colored belt but if there’s one thing that her Dec 4 WNO match against Adele Fornarino showed us, she’s got a ways to go to be in the conversation of real contenders at this weight. 

Feather

The only Musumeci I want to hear about–Tammi–should easily sweep this division, with her hardest match likely coming in the quarterfinals against Bruno Bastos’ golden girl, Cassia Moura. Moura last competed at No Gi Worlds 2023 and won the Absolute division as a Purple Belt. Through the new IBJJF rules of “Win Worlds? You can compete at the next belt,” she won 2024 Worlds in the gi at Brown Belt. Since American Nationals–which occur literally one month after Worlds–Bastos has had Moura competing immediately and often at Black Belt. 

Much as I love the young, scrappy, and pretty classy Moura, I’m still rooting for Tammi. I’m tired of all the conversations about the Musumecis being about Brother Mikey. Mikey has had a busy year smoking easy opponents on ONE and UFC Fight Pass, and getting smoked on the mic for his tirades about steroids and Gabriel Sousa. 

Let’s see the full-time paralegal Musumeci take these ladies to court–and then maybe give some free professional advice to her brother–to stick to jiu-jitsu. 

Light

This division is ripe for at least two good face-offs: 

1. There’s a great and highly-likely semifinal between Amanda Bruse and Mo Black

2. Whoever wins that match is likely to take on 2022 Champ, Brianna Ste-Marie. 

Odds are high for the above to occur. Ste-Marie would be a rematch for Black and a new matchup for Bruse, and I’m hoping we’ll see Ste-Marie against Bruse. Black is a perennial underdog (despite good performances) and a scrapper, but as a fan, I’d want to see how Ste-Marie deals with Bruse’s physicality, wrestling, and sub-heaviness as she tries to repeat her 2022 Championship Run in 2024. 

Ste-Marie had a disappointing loss in the ADCC semis due to a tactical error against New Wave wunderkind, Helena Crevar, but she’s already shaken off that loss with a recent win (and some $$$ to boot) at IBJJF’s The Crown in November. SHe should dust her side of the bracket with flair and subs. 

Middle

On the ladies’ side of the action, Middle could be the most intriguing division of this tournament. 

Sula-Mae Loewenthal is a bit of a one-trick wonder with her closed guard submissions (and is far from a Roger Gracie), but hey, she has zero wrestling and she still managed to make an ADCC debut! Tammi Monteiro is underrated and while she’ll likely get beaten by Clay in the semis, she’s a solid fighter. Czernik was runner up at Worlds this year as a Brown Belt, and this is her Black Belt debut in a No Gi Major. IMO, she’s out of her league given the field, but her Worlds run showcased a lot of nasty, inward-turning ankle locks. If her opponents haven’t boned up on the IBJJF rule change that allowed the inward-turning foot locks to be legal, she may get as far as the semis, where she’d face Nadia Frankland. 

Nadia Frankland, 2023 No Gi World Champ at Brown Belt, looks better in every tournament and looking at the bracket, could be our finalist against division favorite at 2022 No Gi World Champ, Elisabeth Clay. 

In the end though, my money’s on Elisabeth Clay, who returned to competition earlier this fall and won No Gi Pans. Clay was already good–a bit of a flexibility-abuser, but good–and coming back from having her first child earlier this year, she’s astonishingly no worse for wear. The crazy thing about Clay is that those following the sport for the last ten years saw her set records when winning ADCC Trials at 16. Back then, she looked like a child. A year ago, with her baby face, she looked like a child. Now she has a child. The circle of life continues. Look how far we’ve come.

Medium Heavy

There’s some promising talent in this typically-bereft division. Brittney Johnson of Atos who may be the lowest seed in this division, but don’t let that fool you: she took silver in No Gi Worlds the last two years, and as far as No Gi Black Belt debuts go, hers should be strong against the very ‘meh’ Salla Simola. 

Aside from Johnson vs Simola, keep an eye out for Deise Leonanjo vs Nia Blackman in the opening rounds. Leonanjo had an injury that kept her off the mats for a while, but has at least highlight reel armbar in every tournament she does. Blackman is coming off of a formidable (even if losing) performance against the prodigious Helena Crevar at Polaris last month. 

Heavy

Number one seed and ADCC veteran Liz Mitrovic interestingly decided to move up in weight instead of defending her 2023 No Gi World title at Medium-Heavy. I’d argue her odds weren’t great at Medium Heavy this year given the talent mentioned above, but I don’t think Mitrovic is going to have an easy time at Heavy either. In the semis, she’ll either have Maria Malayjasiak–a fellow 30-something who, like Mitrovic, is only as competitive as she is in this division because it’s been so shallow–or Paige Ivette.

Everyone loves a comeback story and Ivette’s would be a tremendous one as she returns to competition following ACL repair. If she mauls Malayjasiak in the opening round, shreds Mitrovic in the semis, and topples Maria Ruffatto, the favorite on the other side of the bracket, in the finals, Ivette will be a headliner for any recap of this tournament. 

Regardless of outcome, Ivette is already up against Lis Clay for having the best sports story in this tournament: Ivette’s got an inspiring return-to-sport story in the making following her injury, and Clay’s got hers in returning to the mats and coming back to compete at Worlds post-partum.

Super Heavy

Gabi Pessanha, the eight-time World Champ (weight and absolute) in the gi, with a record of “I don’t know how many matches it is now”-0, makes her Black Belt No Gi debut at No Gi Worlds. All but one of her opponents has withdrawn. Odds are she will beat her opponent and become a No Gi World Champion even though this is her “debut.” 

I’ll be more interested to see her in the Absolute where someone tries to play David to Pessanha’s Goliath.