ADCC isn’t what it used to be–in good ways and bad. First, the good: the tournament takes place at a flashier venue worthy of jiu-jitsu’s increased popularity and appeal, and athletes are actually getting paid show money. As for the bad? Most ADCC divisions have been gutted by Craig Jones’ competing tournament, CJI. Gordon Ryan has become completely insufferable, and now has not one but two superfights to boost his ego. Neither is likely to be a challenge to him. Mo is absolutely New Wave’s bitch. (I wonder what those training sessions look like.) You have a problem when the biggest star in the sport is only participating in uncompetitive matches.

Nevertheless, will I be watching ADCC? Absolutely. It’s the biennial “Superbowl” of grappling, and with all the shake-ups, could be an opportunity for some new blood and breakout talent to shine in Sin City.  

Read below for some deep dives, hot picks, and insider tips on the ADCC action hitting T-Mobile arena this weekend. 

Basilio has been less active than her peers in the division, coming off of an injury, but with her assertive style, her mastery of the ruleset, and a nasty suite of submissions, she’s the one to beat in the absence of Davies from the division. 

Bastos is a killer, but she was on the smaller side in her last ADCC, when the upper limit of the lightest women’s weight class of ADCC was -60kg: Bastos’ run at ADCC 2022 was cut off in the first round, where she lost by points in a match against 2017 ADCC Champion and “Lady GOAT” Bia Mesquita. Mesquita’s competitive pedigree rivals Bastos’, but Bia has roughly three inches and 30 pounds on Mayssa. Size doesn’t matter in jiu-jitsu…until it does.

Teammate clashes 

Continuing the thread on Bastos, a head to head between former Unity and now Art of Jiu-Jitsu teammates, Margot Ciccarelli and Mayssa Bastos, is likely to unfold and would be compelling within -55kg. The two have top-notch guard games, a penchant for bolo-to-back take sequences, and it’s likely to come down to size, prep, and mastery of the ruleset. 

Bastos is fresh off of seizing the ONE championship crown from Danielle Kelly and can handily make weight for this division: she typically competes at -49kg, making -55kg a breeze. Bastos can be hungry for a gold medal without being hungry for a “cheat meal” relative to Ciccarelli, who is a head taller than Bastos and has historically fought closer to -60kg throughout her career. Margot will have to take greater pains than Mayssa to make weight. 

However, Bastos is no standup artist and her likely paths to victory all start from the guard. Meanwhile, in the last year, Ciccarelli has managed to evolve past being a perennial guard player. In her European Trials run, she showed some new standup skills that gave her the W in her division in February. She’s likely to have more tricks up her sleeve from doing her ADCC camp away from AOJ and over in Austin, Texas, where rising coach Dima Murovanni has been leading hers, Brianna Ste-Marie’s and the entire B Team’s fight camp. 

Rubber matches

Most of the gals in this division have already faced one another in the last twelve months. Overcoming physical challenges is one thing, but overcoming the mental challenges–and beefs–will be the thing to watch most in this division. Here’s a brief low-down of the division's recent history and “drama.”

 -55kg Competitor Roster

Ste.-Marie took the ‘L’ in the finals against Ffion Davies in ADCC 2022, and was a little less active on the scene in light of a back injury in late 2023. Healed up, she’s had a good season in 2024 so far in the gi, including silver medals at Brasileiros and Worlds in the Lightweight division. One of the athletes who went through Dima Murovanni’s B-Team camp, BSM will be a case in point of whether the mysterious Berliner is all he’s cracked up to be as “the German Danaher.”

5x World Champion Ana Carolina Vieira, who typically competes at Middleweight and Medium-Heavyweight, is physically larger than most in the division, and this could give her an advantage over some of the smaller ladies: over the last eight years competing at Black Belt, she’s clinched five World Championship titles and medaled three times in the Absolute division. Her only major losses have been against Amy Campo and Nathiely de Jesus, both of whom are fighting at ADCC, but in the 65+kg of ADCC rather than the -65kg. 

Bia Mesquita has been a bit more focused on MMA, but should never be underestimated: she earned her title as the “Lady GOAT” for a reason and is one of the most decorated female competitors of all time.

Amanda Leve, who completed at 65+kg at trials, dropping down to -65kg, is a sleeper monster for this division, and probably has the best wrestling out of anyone in the bracket–if not among all the women at ADCC. A rare competitor who has beaten Gabi Garcia, Leve has everything needed to take this division on a good day: physicality, technique, assertiveness, and zero quit. 

Le Vern is strong and has a dominant, old-school game. She could have a breakout performance, but is unlikely to pull a rabbit out of the hat against the heavier-hitters in the division. Le Vern vs Leve would be an especially exciting opening round: they’re both bullish AF. 

Mo Black is underrated, especially as one of the few people to have beaten Crevar–at the 2023 East Coast Trials. She’s a definite addition to the division, improves with every performance, and how she’ll do against these other women–especially the BJJ legends–will be intriguing. 

All eyes will be on New Wave teenage wunderkind, Helena Crevar. She’s been touted to the nines for her ability to make grown women look like toddlers on the mat. At ADCC, she’s playing with fire, with the bracket featuring some of the most decorated athletes in the history of jiu-jitsu. Let’s see if she–with the tutelage under John Danaher and Gordon Ryan–can rise to the challenge and live up to the sky-high expectations for her jiu-jitsu. 

Last but not least: Loewenthal. Sula-Mae is unlikely to have her day, but her ADCC 2024 could be what ADCC 2022 was for Adele Fornarino, where the latter debuted against Ffion Davies. Odds are slim in a division this stacked, but if Loewenthal makes it past Round One, it’ll launch her on a come-up following ADCC. Reminiscent of Fornarino: she’s got long legs and has a good closed guard. If she manages to get any of these gals in her guard, she’ll be able to get to work. 

 -65kg Competitor Roster

Campo is the one to beat, and pulled off a breakout performance at ADCC 2022 between technique and strategy, especially in her finals match against Guedes. She’s done it before, and she could do it again. 

Guedes will be durable and hungry to improve her runner-up performance and go all the way at ADCC this time around. A case-in-point example of Team Atos-style porrada, she will not go down without a scrap. 

Last but not least: Reusing. I’ll be the first to admit–I roll my eyes at Reusing. I don’t think she’s had any stiff competition in the last 2 years since ADCC, and I’m excited to watch her “pick on someone her own size” for a change. Since the last ADCC, she’s spent a lot of time sitting behind the mic on Who’s Number One, and when she did step back up to the mats, she cruised through No Gi Worlds simply due to her opponents looking like their prep was sitting on the couch (and not much else) before slipping into rashguards. 

Where Reusing’s story gets interesting for ADCC is a comeback narrative: she’s beaten Campo before but after Guedes injured her in the last ADCC, can she bring her best mental and physical game into this division?

Nathiely de Jesus is a definite value-add for +65kg. She’s one of the best no gi grapplers out there in the heavier weight classes and, like Amanda Leve, is a rare grappler to have beaten Gabi Garcia. She’s beaten Mitrovic, Reusing and Rafaela, and on a good day, she can hang with–if not defeat–this entire division.